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| | Zitat von -=Q=- 8-BaLL
Es gab ja mal die Geschichte, dass westliche Geheimdienste nichts mehr mit denen aus Österreich teilen, weil die ne Standleitung nach Moskau haben.
Ein Mitarbeiter von Bellingcat ist jetzt von Österreich in die USA geflohen.
| | This month Grozev learnt that Russian assassins were actively chasing him in his home base of Vienna with the help of local collaborators. “Austrian authorities are of the opinion that I am not safe [there],” he told me.
“My personal data has been accessed by a now ex-officer of [the] Austrian security service at the behest of Russian intelligence,” he went on. So, as his friends held their breath, Grozev fled to the safety of North America.
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https://www.ft.com/content/7e3d95c3-8118-4ade-ae0c-68512383b7b4
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Österreich, da hatte ich doch letztens auch was gelesen...
Ach ja: Es kommt keine Panzer-Ausbildung. *klick*
Österreich will keine Ukrainer am Leopard 2 ausbilden
| | Österreich will keine ukrainischen Soldaten am Kampfpanzer Leopard 2 ausbilden. Dies bekräftigte Verteidigungsministerin Klaudia Tanner (ÖVP) in einer schriftlichen Stellungnahme gegenüber dem Ö1-"Morgenjournal". Es sei "souveräne Entscheidung eines jeden Staates, im Rahmen seiner Gesetze die Ukraine zu unterstützen", hieß es.
Wie der Völkerrechtler Ralph Janik dem Sender sagte, steht die Neutralität der Ausbildung nicht im Wege, weil es dazu einen EU-Beschluss gibt. | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 15.02.2023 18:56]
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A year of war in Ukraine has left Europe’s armouries dry | Opinion, FT
| | But in many capitals, defence ministers are being informed by their generals that there is precious little left to give. Warehouses and dumps are bare. Denmark has given Ukraine every single one of its Caesar howitzers. Estonia has provided so many 155mm artillery guns it has none left.
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But almost 12 months of gruelling war, in which Putin’s troops have targeted both civilian infrastructure and military targets, has placed immense pressure on Europe’s ill-prepared defence sector.
Europe’s factories are barely able to make enough shells to supply a week’s worth of Ukraine’s needs. Waiting times for some munitions have more than doubled.
Stocks of Soviet equipment held by eastern Nato states, which Ukraine’s soldiers know how to use, have been exhausted. Decisions to send new types of western-made weapons — such as armoured vehicles — are met with fanfare but are followed by weeks and months of delays as armies realise how much refurbishment they require.
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“[The Europeans] are fully behind the Ukrainians. But it’s not enough,” said Dempsey. “You don’t question the political will to support Ukraine, but the actual ability to deliver enough, and quick enough.”
The answer, according to most officials, is large, long-term contracts with defence manufacturers, initially for the war effort but with pledges from European governments to keep buying even when peace comes to Ukraine. Such conversations will dominate Munich, too.
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Boris Pistorius: "Die Ukraine muss diesen Krieg gewinnen" | Zeit
| | Verteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius hat auf der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz der Ukraine fortlaufende Unterstützung zugesichert. Er habe dem ukrainischen Präsidenten Wolodymyr Selenskyj zugesagt, dass Deutschland der Ukraine so lange helfen werde, wie es nötig sei. "Die Ukraine muss diesen Krieg gewinnen", sagte Pistorius.
Russland dürfe "mit seiner Verachtung für das Völkerrecht keinen Erfolg haben", forderte er und nannte die Demonstration von Stärke die richtige Antwort. "Russland führt einen brutalen Krieg der Aggression und der Eroberung gegen die Ukraine." Bekäme der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin "seinen Willen", wäre dies nach Ansicht Pistorius "nur der Anfang". | |
Großauftrag für Rüstungsfirmen: USA fahren Produktion von Artilleriemunition hoch | NTV
| | | Die ukrainischen Streitkräfte verbrauchen im Kampf gegen die russischen Invasoren große Mengen an Artilleriemunition. Doch die Nachschublager leeren sich. Das US-Militär will die Produktion von Geschossen nun massiv erhöhen. | |
Biden’s latest weak excuse for not sending ATACMS to Ukraine | Washington Examiner (Bias: right, medium credibility)
| | According to Politico, Lockheed Martin has produced over 4,000 ATACMS missiles for the United States and allied nations. Roughly 600 have apparently been fired by the U.S. in combat, and some have been sold to countries such as Poland and Romania. The bottom line is that there are still thousands left in U.S. and allied stockpiles.
Additionally, the recently passed fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act gave the Pentagon permission to enter into a multiyear contract to purchase 1,700 ATACMS. Exercising this authority, appropriating sufficient funds, and purchasing additional ATACMS could help replenish the number sent to Ukraine.
However, the Pentagon can do more than just replenish any ATACMS transferred to Ukraine. It is already planning to field a more capable replacement. The Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM, is expected to reach early operating capability in 2023. Like ATACMS, the PrSM is fired from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. But it has twice as many missiles per launch pod and potentially over double the range.
The Pentagon could purchase more of the PrSM than projected as another means to compensate for sending some ATACMS to Ukraine. Congress could further support the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine by adding PrSM to the multi-year procurement list to ensure that stockpiles are sufficiently replenished.
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Inflationsrate bei 25 Prozent: Ungarn steckt in der russischen Sackgasse | NTV
| | | Ungarn ist das Sorgenkind der EU, wenn es um eine einheitliche Position gegenüber Russland geht. Ministerpräsident Viktor Orban versucht sich an einer Doppelstrategie: Russland als engen Partner behalten, gleichzeitig die EU nicht vollends verprellen. Erfolgreich ist dieser Weg längst nicht mehr. | |
| | Das meiste Erdgas bekommt Ungarn noch immer aus Russland: 85 Prozent, beim Erdöl sind es 65 Prozent. Damit will Orban die Preise für die Verbraucher möglichst niedrig halten.
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"Auf der einen Seite steht natürlich dieses finanziell motivierte Interesse, in der EU zu bleiben und Zugang zu den Geldern zu haben. Auf der anderen Seite aber will Ungarn auch nicht die Verbindung zu Russland kappen", so Priebus bei "Wieder was gelernt". Alleine schon deshalb, weil Moskau für Ungarn auch eine Art "Versicherung" darstellen könne, sollte die EU den Geldhahn noch weiter zudrehen.
Diese Strategie hat zuletzt aber nicht mehr gut geklappt. Der Rat der EU hat mehr als die Hälfte der Finanzhilfen für Ungarn eingefroren. Außerdem beschlossen die 26 anderen EU-Staaten, die Hilfszahlungen für die Ukraine auch ohne Ungarn zu leisten. Brüssel will sich nicht erpressen lassen.
Das EU-Geld bräuchte Ungarn eigentlich dringend, um die Folgen der Inflation einzudämmen. Die Teuerungsrate lag im Dezember und Januar bei knapp 25 Prozent. Vor allem die Lebensmittelpreise sind deutlich gestiegen, durchschnittlich um 45 Prozent. Die Menschen zahlen auch mehr für Energie und Benzin - die acht Jahre geltende Preisobergrenze für Energie in Ungarn gibt es nicht mehr, auch die Obergrenze für Kraftstoffpreise wurde aufgehoben. | |
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In China, Worries About a Weakened Russia Prompt a Rethink | WSJ
Concern that a Russian setback in Ukraine would cripple China’s partner against the West helps drive Beijing’s push for an end to the war
| | China’s leadership is growing worried that increased Western military support for Ukraine will severely weaken Russia, a key partner for Beijing in its heightened competition with the U.S. and its allies.
Ukraine’s robust battlefield resistance has prompted a rethink in Beijing, making it more inclined to push for a cease-fire to prevent further Russian setbacks—or even a larger-scale defeat, according to people close to Chinese decision-making.
The reconsideration has led to Beijing further expanding its economic ties with Moscow. China is looking to increase its imports of Russian oil, gas and farm goods, forge more joint energy partnerships in the Arctic and increase Chinese investment in Russian railways and ports.
Unclear is how this will translate into any changes in Beijing’s restraint so far from providing Moscow with military support—a possibility highlighted by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks this weekend that Washington had information that Beijing was weighing providing lethal support to Moscow.
Some foreign-policy strategists in Beijing have raised the question of whether China should consider providing military support to Russia for defensive purposes—a scenario they say could significantly increase the costs of the conflict. That, in turn, could give China some leverage in proposing options to end the conflict.
But such a move would also stir up greater resentment against President Xi Jinping’s leadership in the West. It couldn’t be determined whether the idea is gaining traction in the top leadership.
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China Says U.S. Is ‘Not Qualified’ to Issue Orders on Arms | NYT
Beijing is trying to preserve ties with Moscow while asserting it is a neutral observer trying only to coax Russia and Ukraine into peace talks.
| | “For China, Russia is a potential ally for its confrontation with the United States, and Xi Jinping will cash his check if there is a conflict between China and the U.S.,” Mr. Korolev said in a telephone interview. “I don’t think Beijing is happy about what Russia is doing, but it cannot afford to lose its only great power strategic partner.”
Even so, if China were to send weapons or any other form of “lethal support” to Russia for the war, that would likely deeply alarm Washington as well as European leaders, jeopardizing Mr. Xi’s efforts to rebuild his country’s connections with the world after three years of pandemic-induced isolation. Since late last year, he has been trying to draw closer to Germany, France and other European countries. He attempted to cool tensions with Washington, until a quarrel this month over a Chinese surveillance balloon shot down over the United States put that effort on hold.
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One possible concern to Washington may be Chinese-made drones, said Mr. Korolev, the expert on Russia’s relations with China. Beijing’s deepening military ties with Russia, including regular joint exercises and Chinese copies of Russian weaponry meant Chinese suppliers could be familiar with other military technology.
But, Mr. Korolev said, China may see little benefit from wading into the fighting when neither Ukraine nor Russia appears likely to collapse, or emerge as victor, anytime soon.
“China can keep sitting on the fence,” he said. “Even if China decides to support Russia, everything will be done to hide that.”
Drew Thompson, formerly responsible for relations with China under the U.S. Secretary of Defense, said that U.S. officials may have caught wind of Chinese military officials or arms makers discussing possible exports to Russia, and Chinese diplomats may not be aware of those discussions. He noted he was no longer privy to U.S. government internal discussions.
“There does not appear to be a functioning policy coordination process in China,” said Mr. Thompson
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Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus | Yahoo
The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.
| | A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force.
“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.”
According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. | |
There can be no real peace in Ukraine without justice | WaPo, Opinion
| | Let me be clear about one thing: Ukraine desires peace more than anyone else. But I must also be clear on this: Once the fighting with an invaded country stops, that is not peace — it’s occupation. Lasting peace requires justice, and justice requires accountability — even before the war comes to an end.
Under occupation, people have no chance to protect their freedom, their property, their life, their loved ones.
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For this reason, those who decline to provide Ukraine with weapons for its defense because this allegedly contributes to escalation of the conflict are not just wrong. They are immoral. The world largely ignored the suffering of people in the territories that were occupied by Russia in 2014. It is harder, it would seem, to ignore the struggle of people against a full-blown invasion.
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Biden Just Destroyed Putin’s Last Hope | Atlantic
| | Symbols matter: a Kennedy or a Reagan at the Berlin Wall, a Churchill with a cigar and a bowler, for that matter a green-clad Zelensky growling, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Simply by taking the hazardous trip to Kyiv, Biden made a strategic move of cardinal importance.
While the president clearly intended to bolster the confidence of Ukraine, and the commitment of ambivalent Europeans and neo-isolationist Americans, his real audiences lay elsewhere, as his remarks about Western strength indicated. Russia has cycled through a series of theories of victory in Ukraine—that Kyiv’s leaders would flee, that Ukraine’s population would not fight, that its army would be crumpled up by a sudden blitz or by grinding assaults. It has been reduced to one last hope: that Vladimir Putin’s will is stronger than Joe Biden’s. And Biden just said, by deed as well as word, “Oh no it’s not.”
This is a gut punch to Russia’s leader. The Russians received word of the trip, we are informed—and presumably the threat, stated or implied, that they would get a violent and overwhelming response if they attempted to interfere with it. For a leader obsessed with strength, like Putin, that is a blow. His own people will quietly or openly ask, “Why could we not prevent this?” And the answer, unstated, will have to be, “Because we were afraid.”
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This was not a stunt, but rather an act of statesmanship. Biden’s visit comes at a moment when much hangs in the balance. The Chinese have begun making noises about arming Russia, according to the United States government, which would be a very great change in this war. The Western allies, including the democracies of Asia, have begun mobilizing their military industries. The Russian offensives that were supposed to produce large gains timed to the anniversary of the invasion have instead carpeted the Donbas with the bodies of thousands of men who learned too late that, as one French World War I general put it, “fire kills.” And meanwhile, Ukraine is building up a force to use in its own counteroffensive.
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Hochfahren der Produktion: Panzerbauer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann wartet auf Signal aus Berlin | SpOn
Der Panzerhersteller Krauss-Maffei Wegmann sieht keine Hindernisse für schnelle Ausweitung der Produktion. Es fehle allein an konkreten Aufträgen.
| | | Warum fährt die Industrie nicht schon einmal die Produktion hoch? Ganz einfach: Alles unterliegt dem Kriegswaffenkontrollgesetz. Das ist einfach formuliert. Das Herstellen von Kriegswaffen ist erst mal verboten, d.h. es braucht Genehmigungen UND Aufträge. > | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 3 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 21.02.2023 5:48]
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Putin’s Desperate Hours | Atlantic
The Russian president is frantic and lashing out in defeat.
| | Putin has put himself and his country in a desperate situation, and he has run out of options, including nuclear threats. This is not to say that the risk of nuclear conflict has evaporated; as I noted on the most recent episode of the Radio Atlantic podcast, there is still plenty of room for Putin to do something foolish and set a terrible chain of events in motion. But after a year, it seems that the Russian president’s plan—if it can even be called that—is to consign more of his young men to the Ukrainian abattoir while hoping that the West somehow tires of the whole business. As the Atlantic contributing writer Eliot Cohen pointed out yesterday, however, Biden’s visit to Kyiv and his pledge of “unwavering and unflagging commitment” had to be a “gut punch” to Putin, dashing any hopes that the Free World will give up on Ukraine.
The Russian president is still counting on Kyiv and its armies to collapse, or perhaps on an election to remove Biden, or for Europe to lose its nerve, or for China, perhaps, to come to Moscow’s rescue (which would be both a balm and a deep humiliation). But he also knows that time may be running out at home: After a year of war, there are only so many young men left to kill and only so many generals left to blame.
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Wie lange wird dieser Krieg dauern? | FAZ
| | | Vielleicht versteht man das Leid der anderen am besten, indem man sich selbst beunruhigt. Etwa mit dem Gedanken, dass nicht der Krieg, sondern der Frieden im Rückblick die Besonderheit unseres Zeitalters ausmacht. | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 2 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 22.02.2023 17:45]
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Falscher Thread.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Glätteisen am 22.02.2023 17:54]
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U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s Potential Arms Transfer to Russia | WSJ
| | The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said. ...
In recent weeks, Western nations have picked up on intelligence that Beijing might end its previous self-imposed restraint on weapons supplies to Russia, according to U.S. and European officials, although it appears that China hasn’t yet made a final decision. Beijing had previously been cautious to confine its support to financial assistance and oil purchases, the officials said, but that stance now appears to be shifting, according to the latest intelligence assessments. ...
Over the past year, China has helped Moscow by buying Russian oil and selling commercial items, such as microchips and drones, that also have military applications.
That China might provide lethal weapons to Russia—based on new intelligence—is a marked departure from the more general dual-use goods that Chinese companies have been providing over the past year, according to U.S. and European officials. The officials declined to detail what the intelligence said.
The latest intelligence assessments have also underscored Beijing’s growing concern over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threatened use of nuclear force, the officials said. Those worries represented the only area of common ground with Western envoys regarding Russia in the Munich meetings. While China has long been wary of emboldening Moscow, it also worries about the economic and political fallout of a failed Russia, the officials said. ...
Though the Biden administration has been working to declassify the intelligence for possible release, no final decision has been made on a public disclosure, or the timing of it, officials said.
The Chinese arms trade is shrouded in secrecy, and it is unclear what weapons Russia might receive. China is a world leader in the production of weapons that have been used heavily in the Ukraine war, including long-range artillery systems, precision multiple rocket launchers, antitank and surface-to-surface missiles and small, tactical drones and loitering munitions.
Russia’s military is suffering from a shortage of ammunition and weapons and is dogged by battlefield problems up and down the chain of command.
U.S. and European officials said Beijing wouldn’t necessarily provide advanced weapons, but would likely backfill what Russian forces have lost on the battlefield in Ukraine, such as ammunition, or have been unable to produce because of sanctions, such as electronics.
“It’s not an issue of technology,” said Vasily Kashin, a China specialist and the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. “It’s primarily an issue of production capacity. And in terms of production capacity, China, in many aspects, especially if we talk about ground-forces weapons, might be stronger than Russia and the whole of NATO combined.”
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So sieht es also aus, wenn in China ein Sack Gemeinplätzchen umfällt.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Bombur am 24.02.2023 11:47]
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| | Zitat von Bombur
So sieht es also aus, wenn in China ein Sack Gemeinplätzchen umfällt.
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Der News bleibt der News.
Maestro Regel gilt noch.
1 Tages Rast und Ruhe.
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China considers sending Russia artillery shells, U.S. officials say | WaPo
| | China is considering sending Russia lethal military aid in the form of artillery shells as President Vladimir Putin’s army rapidly depletes its supply of ammunition a year into his invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials said, a prospect that has alarmed those in the Biden administration who believe Beijing has the ability to transform the war’s trajectory.
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The aid being contemplated consists of 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter rounds, which Russia has in dwindling supply as it prosecutes a war largely fought with artillery, the officials said. ...
“China has the capacity to be a game-changer,” said a senior U.S. administration official. ...
At the moment, both Russia and Ukraine are scouring the earth for more munitions. Moscow is appealing to North Korea and Iran to resupply 122mm and 152mm, both of which China also uses. Western allies are trying to procure more 152mm ammunition for Ukraine’s Soviet-era howitzers, as well as trying to produce more of the 155mm NATO standard for artillery they have supplied Ukraine since the war began.
The desperate hunt is driven by the massive amount of shelling undertaken by Ukrainian and Russian forces every day ...
Russia is running low on munitions, U.S. officials said, but China, with its vaunted production capacity for long-range artillery, rocket launchers, surface-to-surface missiles and drones, could make up for the shortage.
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| | | Ukraine's shadow soldiers: Meeting resistance fighters in Kherson region | |
Geht auch um zivilen Widerstand, Leute die ein bisschen cornern und Bewegungen aufschreiben, Waffenschmuggel unter totem Fisch und so.
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| | Timothy Snyder: Der atomare Bluff
Vom Spiel der russischen Propagandisten mit der Angst darf man sich nicht täuschen lassen. Denken Sie strategisch! Dann wird deutlich: Wer der Ukraine Waffen liefert, hilft, das Risiko eines Atomkriegs zu verringern | |
| | Ein Einknicken vor dem russischen Atomgerede ist auch aus strategischer Sicht falsch. Es ist ein Beispiel für eine narzisstische Fantasie, die die Diskussionen über die US-amerikanische Außenpolitik beherrscht. Die Fantasie der allmächtigen Unterwerfung ist die aus dem Amerikanischen Exzeptionalismus und der Ungeduld entsprungene Vorstellung, dass alles gut wird, wenn die USA nichts tun, weil die USA die Macht hinter allem sind. Wenn wir tun, was die russischen Propagandisten wollen, und nichts für die Ukraine tun, dann wird es (in dieser Fantasie) keinen Atomkrieg geben.
In der Fantasie der allmächtigen Unterwerfung haben die USA die magische Macht, durch völlige Untätigkeit einen friedlichen Status quo wiederherzustellen, in dem wir alle gut schlafen können. | |
https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000143688270/timothy-snyder-der-atomare-bluff?ref=article
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Interessantes Interview mit Fiona Hill (Die Älteren kennen den Namen vielleicht noch aus der "Trump-Ära")
| | FS: There was a moment earlier in the war when Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, was talking about some kind of peace settlement. It felt like there was some interest in the Ukrainian administration about engaging with him — and that it was actually Western powers, like the UK, who suggested Ukraine shouldn’t go down that road and that we need to have victory first.
FH: Freddie, that’s actually not true. That’s all Russian trolling and basically a disinformation campaign.
FS: Ok — what’s the truth then?
FH: It’s true that there was a negotiation in February or March, and it was in Istanbul. I’ve talked to lots of people who were there. And there’s a German political scientist called Sabine Fischer, who has reported on the structure of a negotiation which would have involved Russia pulling back to pre-invasion lines. It would have basically left Crimea in Russian hands, which the Ukrainians were then willing to discuss. But since then, all the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin became evident. There have also been a lot of stories from Russia that suggest Putin wasn’t necessarily willing to go down that path. He was trying to see what the Ukrainians were willing to do. I’ve been involved in many negotiations with Russia. And you don’t get very far on your opening gambit, because that’s when both sides are trying to see what the other is willing to do.
So we were in the initial phases of a negotiation. But what happened next, of course, was that negotiations were pushed off-track because Russia started to annex more territory, talk about the expansion of its borders, and basically tell the world that we had better get used to it.
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https://unherd.com/2023/02/absolute-victory-over-russia-isnt-possible/
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Frank Sauer erklärt Atomwaffen, "unsere", die russischen und was an dem Gerücht dran ist, dass die da drüben gar nicht mehr funktionieren.
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Shitholecountry
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| | Russische Region wirbt Waisen mit Wohnraum für Krieg an
13.55 Uhr: Die russische Fernostregion Amur wirbt Waisen mit der Vergabe von Wohnungen für die Teilnahme am Krieg an. »Heute haben aus dem Kreis der Waisenkinder diejenigen Personen ein Vorrangsrecht auf den Erhalt eines Wohnraumzertifikats, die an der militärischen Spezialoperation teilnehmen oder teilgenommen haben«, sagte die Sozialministerin der Region, Natalja Kisseljowa, einer Pressemitteilung der Gebietsverwaltung zufolge.
Eigentlich haben laut russischem Sozialrecht alle Waisen Anspruch auf Wohnraum, wenn sie 18 Jahre alt werden. Allerdings warten allein in der Fernostregion Amur an der Grenze zu China 3500 Waisen auf die Zuteilung einer Wohnung. In den Jahren 2020 und 2021 (Zahlen für 2022 gibt es noch nicht) hat die Administration insgesamt nur 147 Wohnraumzertifikate vergeben. Für das laufende Jahr ist offiziellen Angaben zufolge die Vergabe von 137 Zertifikaten vorgesehen. Das Zertifikat entspricht einem sozialen Zuschuss von der Gebietsverwaltung, mit dem junge Leute eine Wohnung von angeblich bis zu 33 Quadratmetern kaufen können. Insgesamt sind 2023 im regionalen Haushalt dafür umgerechnet knapp 5,3 Millionen Euro veranschlagt. | |
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-ukraine-news-wagner-chef-droht-wegen-munitionsmangel-mit-rueckzug-aus-bachmut-a-645817ce-5161-4ed8-a01c-c0e95a42c2a3?sara_ref=re-so-app-sh
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Wie im anderen Thread auch schon erwähnt:
Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say | NYT
Nord-Stream-Ermittlungen: Spuren führen in die Ukraine | Zeit
Spuren führen in die Ukraine | Tagesschau
| | Auch wenn Spuren in die Ukraine führen, ist es den Ermittlern bislang nicht gelungen herauszufinden, wer die mutmaßliche Tätergruppe beauftragt hat. In internationalen Sicherheitskreisen wird nicht ausgeschlossen, dass es sich auch um eine "False Flag"-Operation handeln könne. Das bedeutet, es könnten auch bewusst Spuren gelegt worden sein, die auf die Ukraine als Verursacher hindeuten. Allerdings haben die Ermittler offenbar keine Hinweise gefunden, die ein solches Szenario bekräftigen.
Die ukrainische Regierung war zunächst für eine Stellungnahme nicht erreichbar. Auf eine Anfrage von ARD-Hauptstadtstudio, "Kontraste", SWR und der "ZEIT" an den ukrainischen Präsidentenberater Michail Podolyak erklärte dieser, die Ukraine habe "natürlich nichts mit den Anschlägen auf Nord Stream 2 zu tun".
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Die "New York Times" berichtet unterdessen unter Berufung auf nicht namentlich genannte US-Regierungsbeamte, dass es neue Erkenntnisse der US-Geheimdienste gebe, wonach eine pro-ukrainische Gruppe für den Anschlag verantwortlich sei. Es gebe jedoch keine Hinweise auf eine Verwicklung des ukrainischen Präsidenten Wolodymir Selenskyj oder seines engen Umfelds, oder dass die Täter auf Anordnung der ukrainischen Regierung gehandelt hätten.
Das Material der US-Geheimdienste lege nahe, dass es sich bei den Tätern um Gegner des russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin handele. Es lasse aber weder Rückschlüsse über die Mitglieder der Gruppe zu, noch darüber, wer sie beauftragt oder bezahlt habe. | |
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https://twitter.com/AlexvB___/status/1633184842899681280
| | Da endet die Spur. Alles weitere ist Spekulation, wie auch im Artikel steht
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https://twitter.com/Ce_Moll/status/1633249809342812160
| | So far I see 2 independent sources of reports:
1 NYT: US officials saying intelligence is robust. (correct?)
2 German journalists seem to have parts of investigation findings.
Source 2 is to be rated higher: intelligence agencies do the opposite of rule of law agencies. Secret services protect sources - in proceedings under the rule of law, the opposite is needed: reliable evidence that can be presented in public.
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All results are as of 2-3 weeks ago(?).
Perpetrator and motive unknown
Supporters unknown
Many written statements in the subjunctive - authors protect themselves
First comes the story in the texts, then the restrictions/details
So what?
At best we are at the beginning of a new chapter - not at the end of the story.
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"a western intelligence service gave hints shortly after the attack"
- yes - the joke goes like this: Reports from different intelligence agencies have a lot in common: they are always contradictory and always too late - thanks for nothing.
+ back 2 Start - intel can rarely back up their findings with robust evidence - instead currency for importance: level of secrecy = level of protection from criticism - sorry BND Operatives.
Sometimes intel agencies are the only source - but never the best in source hierarchy.
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https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1633138513934798856
| | Unfortunately the new New York Times article doesn’t give any new actionable information that can be examined.
“U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains.”
While an interesting development, I don’t feel that there is any real substance in the article that brings us measurably closer to knowing the truth about what happened. Hopefully at some point in the near future we get more actual evidence in one direction or the other.
There are a few things in this series of events that don’t quite add up on the surface.
- Why only 3/4 pipes targeted?
- Why NS2 targeted 80km away from NS1?
- No evidence of post blast investigation inspecting NS2 and removing unexploded charges.
Was this done by a Pro-Ukrainian group, one would expect that all four pipes would have been targets.
As only three were destroyed this would mean at least one charge failed. Nothing suggests that Danish ships were looking for an unexploded charge at the NS2 site.
A small non-government operation would also be more inclined to place the charges closer together as this is easier. The two NS1 charges were 6km apart with the NS2 leak being 80km away.
A large amount of unnecessary increased complexity.
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Additional questions this raises:
- Previous statements by officials have stated that 1000s of lbs of explosives were used at each site. How are you transporting this on a rental yacht as well as diving to place it?
- While AIS is not mandatory, I expect that the company who owns the rental yacht would have one installed. If this was disabled, that would be very suspicious and probably result in problems regarding both the rental contract and insurance
Interestingly though, this timeline does line up with the Minerva Julie arriving directly over the NS1 explosion sites on September 5th
If a “pro-Ukrainian” group decided to blow NS with 1000s of lbs of explosives, why sail from and acquire the explosives in Germany of all places?
Quite the coincidence for the Minerva Julie, with links to Russia, just so happens to be suspiciously circling the site at the exact same time as a “pro-Ukrainian” group decides to plant explosives on the pipes.
If the “pro-Ukrainian” divers used the rented yacht to place explosives on NS1, there would have been basically no time from the 6th-13th September where the Minerva Julie wouldn’t have have been able to see the operation.
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https://twitter.com/nicolange_/status/1633380746877345794
| | Auch nach eingehender Lektüre der Artikel in der New York Times und des deutschen Rechercheteams zu Nord-Stream bleibt es sehr schwer, genaue Aussagen zu treffen.
Die Schlagzeile "Spuren führen in die Ukraine" bezieht sich auf "Spuren führen zu einer polnischen Firma mit ukrainischen Eigentümern". Über die Nationalität der Täter ist nichts bekannt.
Die New York Times berichtet mit Bezug auf US-Geheimdienstkreise von Tätern mit "höchstwahrscheinlich russischer oder ukrainischer Staatsbürgerschaft". Wichtig scheint den US-Geheimdiensten dabei vor allem die Aussage "keine Amerikaner oder Briten".
Kern des Berichts in der NYT ist die Aussage aus US-Geheimdiensten, dass es sich um eine "pro-ukrainische Gruppe" bzw. "Gegner Putins" gehandelt haben soll. Das sind nicht notwendigerweise Ukrainer.
Es gibt laut NYT und deutschen Rechercheteam keinerlei Hinweise auf eine staatliche Beteiligung der Ukraine. Beide Berichte weisen explizit darauf hin, dass False Flag oder Operationen mit Proxies immer in Betracht gezogen werden müssen.
Beamte der US-Regierung sind laut NYT geteilter Auffassung darüber, ob die neuen Informationen die Ermittlungen weiter bringen. Mir geht es auch so.
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https://twitter.com/winkelsdorf/status/1633408977793867776
| | Da steht nicht "die Ukraine ist schuld"
Es geht um eine Spurenlage, die in Richtung der Ukraine deuten soll
Lassen wir einfach mal dahingestellt bleiben, ob das überhaupt so möglich wäre, wie es da beschrieben wird, geht es NUR um eine Spurenlage und Erkenntnisse dazu
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Solange zu sowas aber keinerlei Erkenntnisse vorliegen, sind Schuldzuweisungen da schlicht nicht seriös möglich
Zumal wir auch absolut keine Ahnung haben, was jetzt "pro-ukrainische Gruppierungen" sind
Es gibt halt NUR eine Spurenlage aktuell.
Dass da weitere Player im Spiel sind, ist ein Eindruck, der sich inzwischen massiv verstärkt
Ehrlicherweise habe ich nur absolut keinerlei Ahnung, wer, wie und was.
Wir können seriös nur warten, was an Informationen zu dieser Pipeline-Sabotage noch auftauchen wird
Erst dann haben wir ein ausreichend umfassendes Lagebild, aktuell geht es nur um Mosaiksteinchen.
Da braucht es einfach Geduld.
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| | > Nur mal kurz als Randnotiz zur Pipelinesprengung:
es sollen VIER Ladungen zu jeweils 500 bis 700 Kg gewesen sein.
Schwarzmarktpreis für Plastiksprengstoff ist bei etwa 4000 bis 5000 Euro für 300 GRAMM.
Übergabe bei McDonalds, oder wie? | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 6 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 09.03.2023 2:42]
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Russland stuft WWF als "ausländischen Agenten" ein
| | | Das russische Justizministerium wirft der internationalen Natur- und Umweltschutzorganisation vor, sie habe unter dem Deckmantel des Schutzes von Natur und Umwelt "versucht, Entscheidungen der exekutiven und legislativen Behörden zu beeinflussen". Er habe "die Umsetzung industrieller und Infrastrukturprojekte behindert". | |
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In Bachmut sollen noch rund 5000 Zivilisten leben. Beeindruckende Reportage aus der Stadt
| | „Ich habe mich immer für sehr stark gehalten. Aber nach dem vierten Angriff bin ich zusammengebrochen. Mir wurde klar, dass sie einfach anfingen – wie soll ich sagen –, uns auszuhöhlen. Ja, genau das – aushöhlen“, sagt Ludmila, die wir gemeinsam mit ihrem erwachsenen Sohn aus Bachmut herausholen.
Wir bringen sie in eine Unterkunft in Slowjansk, sie setzt sich auf eine Bank und flüstert: „Mein Gott, das Licht ist an. Und man kann es ausschalten und dann wieder anschalten! Wie konnten wir in solchem Horror leben?“
Die Hilfszentren in Bachmut sind von acht Uhr morgens bis vier Uhr nachmittags geöffnet. Dort kann man Telefone, Geräte und Taschenlampen aufladen, mithilfe von Starlink Verwandte anrufen, heißen Tee trinken, essen, fernsehen, Medikamente bekommen und einfach unter Menschen im Warmen sitzen. In der Nähe eines dieser Stützpunkte wurde ein Brunnen gebohrt, und seit dem Morgen ziehen Menschen Karren voller leerer Behälter heran, um Wasser zu holen. Es gibt auch Duschen, Waschmaschinen und einen Friseursalon, ein Luxus, der für das heutige Bachmut untypisch ist und unter den freiwilligen Helfern und allen an der Evakuierung Beteiligten für große Kontroversen sorgt.
„Die Notunterkunft sollte sich nur in einem Luftschutzbunker befinden und extrem asketisch sein: Wasser, heißer Tee, Ladegeräte, Medikamente und ein Evakuierungspunkt. Mehr nicht. Damit niemand das Gefühl bekommt, dass das Leben besser wird, dass man abwarten kann“, sagt mein alter Freund Schenja, ein Freiwilliger seit 2014. „Der Sinn für Gefahr ist bei Menschen, die in ständiger Bedrohung leben, verkümmert. Sie verstehen nicht wirklich, dass keine Waschmaschine sie vor einem Raketentreffer bewahrt und kein Friseursalon dafür sorgen kann, dass ihnen nicht eine Granate den Kopf wegbläst.“ | |
| | „Vielleicht sind sie Freunde der ,russischen Welt‘?“, spekuliere ich.
„Ich habe mit vielen Leuten hier gesprochen und meine pro-ukrainische Position klargemacht, irgendwie hat niemand widersprochen“, antwortet Gena. „Liebhaber der ,russischen Welt‘ geraten in der Regel sofort in einen Streit. Jeder hier hat etwas, sein eigenes Geheimnis, seine eigenen Gründe. Und manch einer hat einfach Angst vor dem Unbekannten – er ist es gewohnt, an diesem Ort zu leben, er kennt jeden Winkel, es scheint ihm, dass er die Situation irgendwie kontrollieren kann.“ | |
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/nach-dem-vierten-angriff-brach-ich-zusammen-eine-woche-in-der-winterholle-von-bachmut-9465320.html
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Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow | WaPo
| | The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.
U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia’s invasion early last year, compared with about 200,000 on the Russian side, which has a much larger military and roughly triple the population from which to draw conscripts. Ukraine keeps its running casualty numbers secret, even from its staunchest Western supporters.
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“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”
“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.” ...
After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops. ...
Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.
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How much increased Western military aid and training will tip the balance in such a spring offensive remains uncertain, given the scars of attrition that are beginning to show.
One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time. ...
Ukraine has also faced an acute shortage of artillery shells, which Washington and its allies have scrambled to address, with discussions about how to shore up Ukrainian stocks dominating daily meetings on the war at the White House National Security Council. ...
U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine’s offensive to start in late April or early May, and they are acutely aware of the urgency of supplying Kyiv because a drawn-out war could favor Russia, which has more people, money and weapons manufacturing.
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1635475610620375043
| | Some will see this report as defeatism, bad for Ukraine’s war effort. Others will say it’s a clarion call to boost aid. Bold reporting, whatever you make of it.
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The Russian Army Is Running Out Of T-72 Tanks—And Quickly | Forbes
| | Russia’s tank shortage is worse than some observers previously thought. The Kremlin’s stocks of its most numerous tank, the Cold War-vintage T-72, are running out fast.
The worsening T-72 shortfall helps to explain why the Russians increasingly are equipping their newly-mobilized battalions with obsolete T-62 and T-80B tanks.
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In a mid-February count, @partizan_oleg assumed Russia went to war with nearly 2,000 of the 50-ton, three-person T-72s with their 125-millimeter smoothbore main guns.
In the first 12 months of fighting, the Ukrainians destroyed or captured nearly 1,200 T-72s or likely T-72s that Oryx could confirm. Since there undoubtedly have been tank losses that didn’t leave video or photographic evidence, the Oryx count is an undercount. If Oryx confirmed 80 percent of losses, then the Russians actually have written off 1,500 T-72s.
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The Russians have lost potentially two-thirds of the T-72s that are in active service or in recoverable storage.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 4 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 14.03.2023 7:09]
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| | Wer ist Wladimir Putin?
Vor einem Jahr begann Putins Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine. Doch kam er wirklich so überraschend? Hätte der Westen nicht spätestens nach der Annexion der Krim 2014 reagieren müssen? Der Doku-Dreiteiler beleuchtet den Umgang der westlichen Regierungen mit Russland im letzten Jahrzehnt. | |
Hat sehr gute Kritiken gekriegt.
https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/107801-000-A/wer-ist-wladimir-putin-1-3/
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| | Russland und Österreich. Ein 🧵:
Seit mehr als einem Monat deckt Falter-Redakteur @Josef_Redl die Russland-Geschäfte der Raiffeisenbank Bank International (RBI) auf, eines der größten Player in der russischen Bankenszene. Neue Dokumente legen folgenden Verdacht nahe: | |
Harter Kampf, ob D schlimmer ist oder Ö. Oida
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1635732394228449281.html
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U.S. Reaches Deep Into Its Global Ammunition Stockpiles to Help Ukraine | WSJ
| | Ukraine’s insatiable demand for artillery has for months outpaced Western forecasts, setting off a global hunt for more ammunition and forcing the U.S. to raid its stocks abroad to help Kyiv prepare for its counteroffensive later in the spring.
With some U.S. allies unwilling or unable to supply enough ammunition for Ukraine, the U.S. military is pulling from its munition supplies in a number of locations, including in Israel, South Korea, Germany and Kuwait. These sites, known as prepositioned stocks, are where the U.S. stores everything from trucks to bandages to support American forces around the world. ...
The pressure on the U.S. to take more ammunition from its overseas stocks comes as some of Washington’s allies with the biggest stores of artillery rounds have shied away from supplying Ukraine for fear of being seen by Russia as a party to the fight in Ukraine. | |
| | The U.S. has attempted to persuade South Korea, which sits atop a large supply of artillery, to supply Ukraine.
But South Korea, which has tried to remain neutral in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, has been reluctant, providing only about 200,000 rounds, or about two months worth of ammunition based on Ukraine’s consumption rate, according to U.S. and other officials.
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India, which also has deep stocks of artillery, has been similarly resistant, U.S. officials said. ...
During a trip to the Middle East last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asked Egypt to provide more of its 155mm rounds and Soviet-era equipment but didn’t secure a commitment, U.S. officials said.
Mr. Austin has discussed Ukraine’s needs with every top leader he meets, including in the Middle East recently, a senior defense official said in a statement.
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Nord-Stream-Sabotage: Russische Schiffe steuerten Tatort an
| | | Russland wird zum Hauptverdächtigen der Anschläge auf die Gaspipelines in der Ostsee. Informationen aus Sicherheitskreisen und öffentlich einsehbare Daten ergeben ein plausibles Szenario. | |
| | Am 26. September zerstörten Explosionen die deutsch-russischen Gaspipelines am Grund der Ostsee.
Satellitenbilder belegen, dass in der Nacht zum 21. September mindestens drei verdächtige Schiffe Russlands Flottenstützpunkt in Kaliningrad verließen. Die "SS-750" verfügt über ein Mini-U-Boot mit Greifarmen, die Schlepper "SB-123" und "Alexander Frolow" sind mit Lastkränen ausgestattet. ...
Drei weitere Schiffe der russischen Marine könnten dem Verband angehört haben, um die Operation militärisch abzuschirmen: das Spionageschiff "Syzran", die Korvette "Soobrazitelny" und die Fregatte "Yaroslav Mudry". ...
Die russische Ostseeflotte hatte am 19. September große Manöver begonnen, die als Deckmantel für reale Missionen gedient haben könnten. Unter anderem waren dafür Spezialeinheiten von Kaliningrad ausgerückt, die für Sabotageoperationen unter Wasser ausgebildet sind. | |
Putin kündigt Stationierung taktischer Atomwaffen in Belarus an
| | 18.46 Uhr: Russland hat nach Angaben von Präsident Wladimir Putin mit seinem Nachbarland Belarus eine Stationierung taktischer Nuklearwaffen auf dessen Territorium vereinbart. Abkommen zur Nichtverbreitung von Atomwaffen würden dadurch nicht verletzt, zitiert nach Reuters-Angaben die Nachrichtenagentur Tass Putin. Der Kremlchef verwies auf die Stationierung von Atomwaffen der USA auf dem Gebiet von deren Verbündeten in Europa.
Der belarussische Präsident Alexander Lukaschenko habe die Frage der Stationierung taktischer Atomwaffen in seinem an Polen grenzendem Land seit Langem aufgeworfen, so Putin. »Wir haben mit Lukaschenko vereinbart, dass wir taktische Atomwaffen in Belarus stationieren werden, ohne das Nichtverbreitungsregime zu verletzen«, zitierte Tass Putin. Nach einem Bericht der russischen Nachrichtenagentur Interfax
kündigte Putin zudem die Stationierung von zehn Flugzeugen in Belarus an, die in der Lage seien, taktische Atomwaffen zu tragen.
Russland werde den Bau eines Lagers für taktische Atomwaffen in Belarus bis zum 1. Juli abgeschlossen haben, sagte Putin und fügte hinzu, dass Russland die Kontrolle über die Waffen nicht tatsächlich an Minsk übertragen werde. | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 2 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 25.03.2023 19:50]
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| Thema: Ukraine Krieg - News Thread |
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