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Zeit-Ticker
| | Mobilmachung erhöht Russlands Kampfkraft laut Experten wenig
Nach Ansicht westlicher Militärexperten stößt Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin mit der Teilmobilmachung auf große strukturelle Mängel. Das geht aus dem Lagebericht des Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington hervor.
Demnach würden mit der Anordnung zwar zusätzliche Kräfte freigesetzt, jedoch auf ineffiziente Weise und mit hohen sozialen und politischen Kosten im Inland. Dass durch die Mobilisierung die sogenannte Netto-Kampfkraft der russischen Truppen dieses Jahr wesentlich erhöhen werde, sei sehr unwahrscheinlich.
"Putin muss grundlegende Mängel im Personal- und Ausrüstungssystem des russischen Militärs beheben, wenn die Mobilmachung selbst längerfristig eine nennenswerte Wirkung haben soll", teilte das Institut mit. Er scheine jedoch eher darauf zu setzen, schnell Soldaten auf das Schlachtfeld zu schicken, statt diese Probleme zu lösen.
Den Experten zufolge fehlen die Voraussetzungen für eine effektive große Mobilmachung seit mindestens 2008. So sei das russische Militär eine Mischung aus freiwilligen Berufssoldaten und Wehrpflichtigen. Da der Wehrdienst auf ein Jahr reduziert worden sei, sei auch die Gefechtsbereitschaft der Reservisten verringert worden. Zudem fehle es an örtlichen Beamten.
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https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1573699486324588548
| | The Kremlin’s theory of victory, via @jack_watling: Mobilisation will prolong the war so that Russia's economic warfare, escalation threats and political influence campaigns eventually convince Europe and the US to stop supporting Ukraine
Time is the Hidden Flank in Assessing Russia’s Mobilisation
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| | | This as reported in @washingtonpost on Thursday: "A Russian official said the reservists would be enough to buy time + hold the line but not mount offensives. The official said the Kremlin hopes that Western support would crumble over winter forcing Ukraine to accept Russian terms | |
https://twitter.com/ZDFheute/status/1574174212591435780
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1574149302519308290
| | The reason I think mobilization deserves a substantively large response from the West is less to do with its effect in Ukraine than what the fundamental bet is in Russia: Essentially the bet is that mobilization allows the war to continue long enough for economic effects in the West to sap support there.
I suspect that the people who matter in Moscow basically all agree, even if they won't say it out loud, that the war is unwinnable for virtually any useful definition of "win" while Western support continues at or above the current level, mobilization or not.
Russian allies are at best staying out and giving veiled criticism; at worst openly considering their long-term future with a country that's busy sinking into the mire. The Russian economy is just straightforwardly imploding at a rate that is impacting their quality of life.
Putin took an enormous bet in the war against Ukraine. His bet was that he'd achieve victory quickly and split the West, and NATO in particular, and show them as ineffective and weak. That was a huge bet against the advice of *many* key voices in Russia, and his bet didn't pan out. He's now stuck in a big war that's not going his way, and very little to show for it back home.
And so now like the compulsive gambler at the table looking at the unfathomable scale of his losses so far, he's making another, even larger, even riskier bet: mobilization. The whole bet is that mobilization will turn the tide for him and give him time for the West to get scared or bored and stop arming Ukraine, and buy a bit of time at home to say that victory or some definition or other is still available, and that it wasn't all for nothing.
A Western response is necessary to call that bluff, so that the folks who matter in Russia see it: he's betting *your whole country* on a losing hand. The West won't get bored or scared, and the West is fundamentally a lot better positioned to weather the economic shitshow than Russia. Putin is not interested in off-ramps. UA and the West gave him 100s, and the off-ramps that matter are domestic anyway at this point. But the key is that he nailed himself and his own administration to the mast of this sinking ship, but not everyone wants to sink with him.
The key is that the West needs to show that Putin's *internal* claims about why his bet are plausible, that they won't pan out. And that means meeting Putin's medium-term plan with a credible (and larger) one that shows elites in Russia that his plan cannot and will not work.
It's also necessary to show that while R almost certainly has no path back to the status quo ante and will certainly suffer generational economic, diplomatic and other harms from this conflict; that Putin is burning his whole country to the ground, but they don't have to let him.
It is probably also worth the West much more aggressively highlighting what that loss *is*. Because mobilizing your economy, even if you're not laughably incompetent at it, is still basically lighting your economy on fire.
That's not, of course, to say that Putin will be toppled by internal forces. He might be. He might not be. That's frankly outside of anyone's control. But it's still better to show what the bet is and why it'll fail earlier via defense policy rather than later via the battlefield.
Probably also worth pointing out that while mobilization is going to *start* with minorities, and that's awful, that folks in R who think they've narrowly escaped the list are going to find the meat grinder will work their way up to them a lot sooner than they think too.
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https://twitter.com/BA_Friedman/status/1574137972621975554
| | This Russian mobilization is a pretty clear attempt to use mass to stem the metaphorical bleeding on the battlefield through mass, but this is very unlikely to work. A (short) thread on mass:
Mass or concentration is probably the most common principle of war. It's commonly said quantity has a quality all its own. And it does, but that mass has to be used somehow.
Throwing every able-bodied male in uniform and shipping them out can get you units, but they can't get your capable units. Especially in modern warfare where physically-massing ground forces isn't a strength but a liability.
It used to be you could get away with this. For example in 1793 the French Revolutionary armies were faltering, so France launched the first levée en masse, putting 800,000 men into uniform within a year. That worked.
But that was a time when units still literally fought in massed formations. Mass indeed had a quality all its own because mass and combat power had a direct relationship.
That direct relationship no longer exists. These days, it's more about the quality of the troops and the planning, coordination, and sustainment of the tactics they employ over time. The operational art. It's in the operational art where Russia has truly failed, ironic since it was Russian theorists who absolutely pioneered operational theory. But its Ukraine that has mastered this art, and matched it with the professional officer, SNCO, and NCO corps that really fuel it.
I really don't expect these 300,000 hastily trained replacements to give the Ukrainians much trouble. It's going to be tragic but they're headed for a meatgrinder. Russians have always deserved better leaders than they've had, whether tsars, chairmen, or presidents.
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https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1574011211901026310 | Thread Reader
| | Sunday Update. Russia (finally) mobilizes with the worst mobilization process in modern history. Plus why it wont matter that much unless they properly train and equip the forces and why people are being fooled by one vision of WWII and the Eastern Front.
... [Thread] ...
Just as a point of comparison, in WWII it took the US a year from starting the process to train and equip a division for action. And this was after the US had spent a long time planning the process, training the trainers, etc. Russia has done none of that. If they really are going to give these poor conscripts two weeks of training and send them to Ukraine with old crappy weapons, it will probably make things worse, as logistically moving and maintaining them will hardly be worth their combat value.
Actually, Putin seems to be desperately trying to recreate the Stalinist experience in WWII, but he is fooling himself about that ... So much of his and other people's view of WWII has been dominated by the argument that the was was decided on the Eastern Front with the engagement of the Red and German armies, that they have focussed on the wrong variables--numbers of soldiers. ... numbers of soldiers has ceased being the key metric since the industrial revolution. Since then the key thing is the army with the best trained and motivated forces provided with the best equipment.
...
Long story short, the numbers of troops in and of itself is a poor indicator of success and failure in modern technological, industrial warfare. As said above its about the number of well-trained, motivated, equipped and supported forces.
... @GeneralStaffUA in their evening update says the Russians are already sending some of the just forcibly raised conscripts into fighting units after no training whatsoever. If true, this is desperate stuff.
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https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1574098446226800643
| | How much will mobilization cost? @Vladi_Moscou indicates that we are looking at 3-4 million Russian males that would be
a) trying to escape Russia;
b) hiding inside the country.
Police will first try to get them where they live then they'll try to get them where the work thus they will be falling out of normal economic cycle. Naturally, RU state won't be compensating those losses.
The war itself will radically increase the costs - which will make Kremlin increase taxes and that would lead to more of economy going in the shadow.
State will decrease all investment expect for military and security related.
If borders shut down - we should also forget about parallel import which will only increase sectoral collapses.
Inozemtsev says 3 months of mobilization will cost significantly more than 7 months of war before it.
In several months when thousands of caskets starting coming in we should expect "women revolution" who as Inozemtsev claims unlike men still maintain some sense of self-preservation.
All in all, he says - Russian economy will die in the winter
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1573962833049665538 | Thread Reader
| | The Russian economists Maxim Mironov (@mironov_fm) and Oleg @itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisation on Russia. A translation follows. ⬇️
Brief conclusions:
1. Over the next 6 months an attempt will be made to mobilise between 700,000 and 1 million people.
2. We estimate the target group for the first call-up to be 2-3 million people. In total, the probability of being drafted among members of this group exceeds 25%.
3. We estimate the expected casualties during the first 6 months among the conscripts at 60-70%. Of these we estimate 15-20% killed, 45-50% wounded.
4. The demographic damage from the war in Ukraine to the Russian population will be many times greater than the damage from the COVID pandemic.
5. We expect two waves of a spike in crime. The first wave will be among those returning from the war. The second wave will be among orphans who will grow up without fathers.
6. Sabotage of conscription and all methods of evading military service is an optimal strategy at the individual level and makes it impossible to conscript significantly more young men.
... [Thread] ...
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1574375526885720067
| | While there's a lot of attention being given to the military, economic and demographic consequences of Russia's partial mobilisation ..., we should never forget that it has multi-generational consequences. Thread follows.
The Russia-Ukraine war is an intensive industrial war of a kind not seen anywhere in the world since the Korean War (and not in Europe since WW2). On present trends, it's likely to be one of the deadliest worldwide in the last 200 years.
The war in Ukraine is on track to be among modern history’s bloodiest | WaPo
When the war is over, Russia and Ukraine will need to deal with a huge number of physically and mentally wounded people. Both countries have experience of this. During WW2, the former Soviet Union suffered 46,250,000 physically wounded – more than any other country in history. In Afghanistan, around another 35,000 Soviet soldiers were wounded, and probably about the same number of Russian soldiers were wounded in Chechnya during the two wars between 1994 and 2009.
The numbers of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in Ukraine are unclear, but is already likely to be between 75,000-150,000 after only 6 months, assuming a 1:3 ratio between dead and wounded.
In all of these cases, it's safe to say that the number suffering psychiatric injuries – such as PTSD – is far higher. Unfortunately, in the former Soviet Union and post-Soviet Russia and Ukraine, mental injuries often went untreated. The consequences were not only catastrophic for ex-soldiers, who sank into alcoholism and drug abuse, but for their families, who faced domestic violence and other impacts that tore apart families and ruined the lives of children.
I don't have much hope for Russian veterans, given the run-down state of the country's health service and the Russian government's historical neglect of its veterans. But I would hope that the Ukrainians will do better by their veterans after the war.
To illustrate why this is so important, see the thread linked below – an account by the child of a Soviet Afghan veteran whose family life, and their own childhood, were destroyed by the effects of untreated PTSD.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1574373644968628225
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https://twitter.com/IvanUlisesKK/status/1574435284615368704 | Thread Reader
| | Dagestan's Politics: a Short Introduction
Starting with the conclusions:
I expect mobilisation to push people to engage in active resistance, but there is no clear path to armed conflict just yet. ‘Separatism’ is unlikely to come back to Dagestan. 🧵
... [Thread] ...
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Two Cities, Two Armies: Pivot Points in the Fight in Ukraine’s East | NYT
| | Unlike in Lyman, where there is a mix of Russian reservists, separatists and regular army forces, the area around Bakhmut is largely controlled by the Wagner Group, an infamous paramilitary force that reports directly to the Kremlin.
Ukrainian soldiers near the front say that Wagner’s ranks are bolstered by prison inmates from the separatist regions who were drafted into service. One Ukrainian soldier, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons, said Wagner’s forces attack only so far before sending inmates with little support forward to face Ukrainian guns like “cannon fodder.”
These tactics have left Ukrainian forces in the region with a flood of prisoners as the inmates frequently surrender. Another soldier, who also spoke anonymously, said Russian forces would not trade captured Ukrainian forces for inmates: the onetime Russian prisoners, now Ukrainian prisoners, are seen as deserters. | |
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1574506855279529984
| | Five days into Russian mobilization and flight and it already feels like social tensions in Armenia are hitting the boil. Can only imagine what it's like in Georgia.
The number of times I've heard some Russian guy here tell someone (in the only non-Russian words he knows) to 'speak Russian' is absurd.
A very noticeable difference here in Armenia w/the Russians who came in March, and those who came now. The majority from the former seem to have made a genuine attempt to integrate: learning some Armenian, condemning AZ attacking, etc. New ones are largely arrogant and combative.
You haven't seen fury until you've seen a (fluently Russian-speaking, very tolerant Armenian girl) who dared speak English to some new Russian guy being told 'ну че, мы же не армяне, давай по русски'
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 5 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 27.09.2022 2:57]
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| | Zitat von Wraith of Seth
| | Zitat von flowb
Dir ist schon klar, dass eine sehr lange Gefängnisstrafe für ihn ein sehr wahrscheinliches Szenario ist, wenn er in die USA geht?
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Ach, nein...?! Was du nicht sagst?
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Und du findest also, er sollte ein Leben in “relativer Freiheit “ gegen potentiell lebenslänglich im supermax Gefängnis eintauschen, um ein Zeichen zu setzen. Lol.
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Der Mittelmeerraum hat eh keinen Winter; Nordeuropa und UK hat eigenes Gas. Kaum jemand ist so abhängig wie D. Kaum jemand hat ja auch die SPD, lol.
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Also das "nur" Deutschland so abhängig ist glaub ich mal gar nicht.
Polen z.B. trifft das auch sehr sehr stark.
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Ja
Östlich von D ist's auch düster
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| | Zitat von pesto
Also das "nur" Deutschland so abhängig ist glaub ich mal gar nicht.
Polen z.B. trifft das auch sehr sehr stark.
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Die haben aber schon ein bisschen früher angefangen mit Terminals und neuen Pipelines, ohne Pikachu am 24. Februar.
/Und bei uns soll "die Struktur einer Gesamtlösung" ja auch "sehr schnell sichtbar" werden. Was auch immer das heißt.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von -=Q=- 8-BaLL am 27.09.2022 8:48]
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scheise, wieder etwas auf reddit gelernt. man kann sich tampons von der familie an die front schicken lassen, um damit schusswunden zu stopfen.
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Viel wichtiger als die Frage "Woher kriegen wir jetzt unser Gas her?" ist doch die Frage:
| | | U.S. Navy MH-60R Seahawk anti-submarine helicopter airborne off the coast of #Kaliningrad. | |
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1573450988744331274
Haben die Besatzungen dieser Helikopter genügend Beweismaterial sammeln können, damit offensichtlich ist, wer da die Pipelines kaputt gemacht hat, um damit entweder hinter verschlossenen Türen oder durch public shaming endlich die SPD dazu zu bringen die Bauchwehsaftreserven anzubrechen und der Lieferung von Leos und Mardern zuzustimmen?
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Odessa
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| | Zitat von h3llfir3
scheise, wieder etwas auf reddit gelernt. man kann sich tampons von der familie an die front schicken lassen, um damit schusswunden zu stopfen.
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und Binden helfen gegen Nasse Socken in den Stiefeln!
Improvise, Adapt, Overcome!
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| | Zitat von Real_Futti
Ich weiß nicht, in welchen Thread es besser passt, aber irgendwie sollte es schon passen.
Da ja NS1+2 nun leider leider leider kaputt sind, weil eine Zigarette auf den Meeresgrund gefallen ist, wie bekommen wir derzeit Gas? Nur LNG?
Des Weiteren, wie regeln andere (westeuropäischen Länder+Schweiz) das gerade mit den Strompreise, Gaskosten, Sprit, Heizöl? Dont give a fuck? Aktives eingreifen? Obergrenzen? Abschöpfungen?
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Es kam schon vorher kein Gas durch NS.
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Wie kasuell die Deutschen inzwischen "Gas" und "NS" in einem Satz in den Mund nehmen. Danke Putin für nichts
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Mal schauen was sich politisch jetzt in Europa weiter entwickelt. In Italien sind ja gerade z.T. Russland-Sympathisanten an die Macht gekommen, was die neue schwedische Regierung jetzt austüddelt muss man mal sehen (wobei da wohl eher Errungenschaften im sozialen Sektor auf der Streichliste stehen, zumindest nach den Schweden mit denen ich gerade erst gesprochen hab).
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An der Grenze zu Georgien wurde nun ein Einzugsbüro eingerichtet.
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Junge, 2013 hat angerufen
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von pesto am 27.09.2022 10:49]
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Find ich ja Neuland genug, quasi Socken angeschafft und zack wurde die Krim besetzt.
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| | | Der frühere russische Präsident Dmitri Medwedjew hat erneut gewarnt, Moskau habe das Recht, sich mit Atomwaffen zu verteidigen, wenn es über seine Grenzen hinausgedrängt werde. Dies sei "sicherlich kein Bluff". Das meldet die Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. | |
Ein Glück, da bin ich ja beruhigt
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| | Zitat von TylerDurdan
Viel wichtiger als die Frage "Woher kriegen wir jetzt unser Gas her?" ist doch die Frage:
| | | U.S. Navy MH-60R Seahawk anti-submarine helicopter airborne off the coast of #Kaliningrad. | |
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1573450988744331274
Haben die Besatzungen dieser Helikopter genügend Beweismaterial sammeln können, damit offensichtlich ist, wer da die Pipelines kaputt gemacht hat, um damit entweder hinter verschlossenen Türen oder durch public shaming endlich die SPD dazu zu bringen die Bauchwehsaftreserven anzubrechen und der Lieferung von Leos und Mardern zuzustimmen?
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Vielleicht haben die Russen ein U-Boot verloren?
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| | Zitat von Peniskuh
| | | Der frühere russische Präsident Dmitri Medwedjew hat erneut gewarnt, Moskau habe das Recht, sich mit Atomwaffen zu verteidigen, wenn es über seine Grenzen hinausgedrängt werde. Dies sei "sicherlich kein Bluff". Das meldet die Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. | |
Ein Glück, da bin ich ja beruhigt
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Sie drängen doch gerade selbst über ihre Grenzen hinaus.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Q241191 am 27.09.2022 12:41]
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| | Zitat von cienFuchs
unbegreiflich, was da abgeht. wirklich un-fucking-fassbar.
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Bring your own medkit kind of warfare...
Ab ins Schlachthaus mit denen. Das KANN auf die Dauer nicht gut gehen.
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Die mit dem Blubb
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Da gibt's also jetzt Gratisgas? Frage für 1 Nation mit noch nicht komplett gefüllten Gasspeichern.
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Setz dich in dein Paddelboot und nimm ein paar Plastiktüten mit.
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| | Berlin. Es sind Nachrichten, die aufhorchen lassen: Am Montagmorgen machten Meldungen über einen plötzlichen und massiven Druckabfall in einer Röhre der Ostsee-Pipeline Nord Stream 2 die Runde, am Abend dann wurden ähnliche Probleme auch in beiden Nord Stream 1 Röhren bekannt. Kann das Zufall sein? Materialermüdung? Ein technischer Defekt?
Möglich - aber unwahrscheinlich. Plausibler ist aus Sicht von Experten eine gezielte Manipulation. Also ein Anschlag. Noch ist vieles unklar und der Fall ähnlich undurchsichtig wie das Ostsee-Wasser in 45 Metern Tiefe, wo die zwei Doppelröhren verlaufen.
Ein Überblick darüber, was wir wissen und was nicht. | |
| | Wer kommt als Täter in Frage?
Das ist bislang Spekulation. Wegen der großen Wassertiefe scheiden Hobbytaucher oder militante Umweltschützer nach Einschätzung von Sicherheitsbehörden aus. Für einen solchen Anschlag brauche man militärische Fähigkeiten, heißt es. Vieles spreche für einen staatlichen Akteur. Bei der Frage, wer ein Interesse an der Zerstörung der Pipelines haben könnte, herrscht bislang großes Achselzucken. Theoretisch käme die Ukraine in Frage, allerdings hat das Land derzeit andere Sorgen, und es schien zuletzt weitgehend sicher, dass bis Kriegsende kein Gas mehr durch die Pipelines fließt. Russland gilt als weiterer möglicher Urheber, allerdings würde sich das Regime dadurch einer Handlungsoption - wieder zu liefern - berauben. Auch das macht eigentlich keinen Sinn. Manch einer spekuliert deshalb über eine „False-Flag“-Aktion“, also dass der Kreml den Anschlag veranlasst habe, um ihn Kiew in die Schuhe zu schieben. Wieder andere glauben, die zerstörten Pipelines seien nur ein weiterer Baustein in Wladimir Putins Plan, möglichst viel Chaos in Europa zu stiften. | |
https://www.rnd.de/wirtschaft/bei-nord-stream-lecks-spricht-vieles-fuer-anschlag-was-wir-jetzt-schon-wissen-XDFU7QCUVJBURDRUQ2CIFVIRYQ.html
Quo vadis??
| | "There are some indications that it is deliberate damage," said a European security source, while adding it was still too early to draw conclusions. "You have to ask: Who would profit?"
Russia also said the leak in the Russian network was cause for concern and sabotage was one possible cause. "No option can be ruled out right now," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Neither pipeline was pumping gas to Europe at the time the leaks were found amid the dispute over the war in Ukraine, but the incidents will scupper any remaining expectations that Europe could receive gas via Nord Stream 1 before winter.
"The destruction that occurred on the same day simultaneously on three strings of the offshore gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system is unprecedented," said network operator Nord Stream AG. "It is not yet possible to estimate the timing of the restoration of the gas transport infrastructure." | |
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mystery-gas-leaks-hit-major-russian-undersea-gas-pipelines-europe-2022-09-27/
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Nighty am 27.09.2022 12:59]
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Ich dacht echt im ersten Moment, der zockt BF3.
| | Zitat von -=Q=- 8-BaLL
Setz dich in dein Paddelboot und nimm ein paar Plastiktüten mit.
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Da werden schon genug Plastiktüten herumschwimmen. 
------
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574486273028489216
| | How the front line in Lyman area has changed over the past 10 days
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| Thema: Allgemeine Diskussion zum Ukraine Krieg |
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![[BC]Alm](./avatare/[BC]ALM.gif)
