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das sind 10000 Russen, die weniger verheizt werden für dasselbe Resultat. Oder hast du das Gefühl, sowas wie innenpolitische Probleme ion Belarus interessiert Moskau noch?
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Ich glaub der Punkt ist eher, dass 10k hochgradig unmotivierte und beschissen ausgerüstete Soldaten da jetzt keinen messbaren Unterschied machen werden.
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Naja, Luka mag ja voll der Einfaltspinsel sein, aber wieso sollte er ohne Not seine wenigen Streitkräfte in der Ukraine verheizen lassen, und zudem noch massive innenpolitische Unruhen riskieren? Um einer Invasion Russland zu entgehen? Womit soll denn Russland einfallen? Zudem wäre das das endgültige Aus der russischen Föderation. Wer will dann noch was mit Putin zu tun haben, wenn er selbst seine engsten Verbündeten angreift?
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| | Zitat von Poliadversum
Ich glaub der Punkt ist eher, dass 10k hochgradig unmotivierte und beschissen ausgerüstete Soldaten da jetzt keinen messbaren Unterschied machen werden.
| |
Einerseits das, andererseits ist auch immer die Frage welcher Anteil der Nennstärke überhaupt direkt im Gefecht einsetzbar ist. Und inwiefern Belarus bereits jetzt Kräfte einsetzt, um die Russen zu unterstützen.
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| | Zitat von Poliadversum
Ich glaub der Punkt ist eher, dass 10k hochgradig unmotivierte und beschissen ausgerüstete Soldaten da jetzt keinen messbaren Unterschied machen werden.
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Und der Unterschied zu den letzten 300k Eingezogenen ist nun was genau?
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Also ein relativ prominenter Osint Account dem ich seit einiger Zeit folge, sieht die Sache relativ gelassen:
| | Ukraine-Belarus border is a swampy forest with few roads. During both World Wars neither German nor Russian/Soviet Armies tried to overcome this area. Putin thinking to do so speaks volumes about his military "genius".
But never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Context why I'm writing this:
Igor "Strelkov" Girkin warns that this would end badly for Russian forces (he is right).
Moreover to what he said, I see the Belarus Army as an additional Achilles heel. They will not fight for Putin and might quickly turn their guns around.
For those claiming that the activities in Belarus might force Ukrainian troops to be allocated there. AFU never put their guard down. The entire 5th Army is positioned there. It is certainly not the strongest part of AFU but their job is to delay and obstruct until help arrives. | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Wedge am 24.12.2022 16:14]
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Heiligabend. 10 Monate Angriffskrieg
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| | Zitat von h3llfir3
| | US-Experten sehen Vorbereitungen für möglichen Angriff aus Belarus
»Feldhospitäler sind nicht notwendig für Übungen und können ein Hinweis auf die Vorbereitung von Kampfhandlungen sein«, | |
SPON
Na super.
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Das finde ich eine seltsame Aussage. Wieso sollten Feldlazarette nicht Bestandteil einer Übung sein? Wenn man übt, dann vollumfänglich, auch mit schwerveletzten und deren Versorgung. Oder brauchen Sanitäter keine Übung? Ok, bei den Ex-Sovietarmeen kennt man die Funktion evtl. gar nicht, aber das ist nicht der Punkt 
Wie gesagt, finde ich ne seltsame Aussage von nem Militärinstitut.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Shooter am 24.12.2022 21:17]
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| | Some observations on Putin's recent speeches, especially his conversation with journalists on 22 December. A longer thread this #ChristmasEve on #Putins interpretation of the #UkraineWar
Over the past three months, fatigue has clearly accumulated, optimism has noticeably disappeared, and discouragement has come in its place. No anxiety yet, but sadness and disappointment.
There is a very pronounced misunderstanding on Putins part as to why Ukraine does not give up, as to why there are no internal disputes about the need to capitulate, because it seems to him that they are doomed.
To Putin it looks like the further it all drags on, the more unnecessary sacrifices there will be on both sides, and the more expensive the price of the future Russian victory will be, in which he still believes. This upsets him greatly.
The same misunderstanding concerns the West: is the desire to crush Russia so strong that they will fight to the last Ukrainian? There is disappointment and pain because everything is not going as it seems logical to him: disagreements between Western countries are not
intensifying, a more conservative and nationally oriented intra-Western opposition is not rising, a revolt of the masses is not born, and so on. Even if it all seems to be there, it is happening far too slowly.
The war with Ukraine has now definitely become perceived as a civil war between brotherly peoples: Putin openly blames the Americans for first pulling us [Russians and Ukrainians] apart, separating us, and then pitting us against each other.
Another very revealing phrase: No one wants the unification of the Russian people. There is a strong sense of fatalism, of doom, and of loneliness. Putin has not shown himself like this for a long time. Or maybe never.
However, he is not ready for any sort of peace. Our goal is not to spin this flywheel of a military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war - this phrase should not be perceived as a change of position and readiness for negotiations.
It is rather a manifestation of internal shock about the fact that the West is so wasting our Ukraine (yes, that's how he sees it), multiplied by emotional rejection and a misunderstanding of external hostility; we came to save, the historical truth is ours, but
justice fails to prevail in any way. He doesn't blame himself for anything.
An important evolution: if at the beginning of the war it seemed to Putin that he had now taken everything into his own hands and was reshaping the world, now he again feels like a victim of circumstances.
The war is a result of the systematic efforts of the United States, which brought Russia to this stage of fratricidal war.
There is no regret about his actions. We had no other way out, we have nowhere to retreat. All this is already pronounced with sadness, but there is no doubt for him that it is necessary to continue.
The chicken pecks grain by grain" - this is his view of how Russia will behave in the coming months. That is, to slowly crush and strangle Ukraine, avoiding large-scale fighting. There is a sense of readiness for a protracted confrontation.
Although there is bitter emotion about the human victims, in his perception the existence of Russia is at stake, which means it is impossible to stop.
The feeling of guilt towards the military is noticeable. The fact that he has to throw soldiers into the furnace of war clearly causes him moral pain, and that is much more pronounced than a sense of responsibility to mothers.
But he places the main blame, of course, on the West; if Kyiv had not been supported, everything would have already ended.
He is significantly emotional about the patriots. His words about the fact that the patriotism of young people makes him cry are clear evidence of how his administration, in general, has learned to touch the right strings.
But at the heart of this is a sense of guilt that he has drawn millions into this war and that it went the way it went. This feeling asks for collective solidarity and constant support. Otherwise, the burden becomes unbearable.
Lastly, there is a clear division in Putin's perception of the real patriots, for whom he has a very reverent attitude, and the non-patriots, whom he sees as a threat.
This lays the foundation for the development of a more complex and ruthless system of recognizing the friend and the enemy - a mechanism of protection against the latter. Thats to say that things are moving towards more mass repressions and a more developed state ideology.
The conclusion to the post above is that Putin is getting more upset over what is happening. I have always argued with the thesis that Putin is cornered, that he is lost, and does not know what to do. And I continue to argue with this.
But there is a noticeable change in his emotional background from moderate optimism (recall his summer we haven't started anything yet) to depression. Even if there is victory tomorrow, he will not be especially happy - too heavy a price has been paid, and its far from over.
He still knows what to do, refuses to revise the plan, and simply does not understand what the alternative might be. He doesn't see it. But in his current situation, he is uncomfortable, too. | |
https://twitter.com/R__Politik/status/1606704491486642178
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| | Zitat von cienFuchs
Heiligabend. 10 Monate Angriffskrieg
| |
Putin khuylo! - LALALALALALALALAAAAAA
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Um Weihnachten wird scheinbar ne Menge reflektiert
| | 'WE ARE SO FUCKED RIGHT NOW' THREAD
1) 2023 is coming and what are the results? Well, there is a single thing I can say about Russias near future. This country is fucked. Not showing the symbols of decay or bleeding occasionally. Not close to collapse. Fucked.
2) Let's agree on the terms. "Fucked" means there is no chance left for some clever stunt to pull in the very end and save everyone. Whatever happens next, is happening and there is no undo button.
3) Russia exceeds expectations. It is prematurely fucked. Experts were predicting the burst of violent crimes, the moment mobilized come back home. What wasn't predicted is that we dont need anyone to come back - just to smuggle weapons for all the existing criminals.
4) New official police numbers show not just the increase in gun violence - its a literal weapon craze. Compared to 2021, Kurskaya oblast has a 675% raise in crimes with weapons. 675% IN A YEAR.
5) Moscow, the city filled with police and special forces - 203%. Most of the regions near the border are beyond 100% raise. And let me remind you these are official numbers of REPORTED crimes, aka numbers full of shit. We are fucked beyond knowing the scale.
6) What does this mean? This means that an uncontrollable and untraceable stream of weapons is already happening, and the moment soldiers come home, poor, angry, wounded, and mentally crippled - the whole infrastructure is already built for them.
7) Some of them will come with the full understanding: "We were just the meat thrown at the battlefield for some crazy delusions of old rich men". Some of them will keep their dreams of being "a war hero with a lot of money". These dreams will break the moment they get home.
8) We see that this war doesn't look like something positive for the masses. So the guys who come back, craving appreciation will receive quite a cold reception. The money they got will disappear in months. The trauma and anger will not.
9) These tendencies will come hand in hand with two other "friends": the drop in the price of human life and the demolition of the monopoly on violence. "Why shouldn't I kill, if everyone does and you can always avoid penitentiary by joining Wagner"?
10) And here you might say: "Don't worry - these criminals will be killed by Ukrainians, and quite a few of them will come back". And I would reply: - The quantity of those coming back is not what I look at, because they will not be the ones who commit the majority of crimes.
11) "War is a matter of the young" is a common concept. Not this one. Let me remind you, that it started with contract forces, with an average contractor being 26-28 years. Later they decided to mobilize people and focused once again on the post 27 y.o. men.
12) The accurate phrase should sound like "Violence is a matter of the young". The younger you are, the bigger are statistical chances for you to commit a violent crime. Young people have also less experience so they are more suggestible especially when it comes to bullshit.
13) What I expect from our bitter deformed survivors is to look for appreciation from people of their age groups. Most of them will find nothing but the desire to isolate themselves from anything or anyone war-related. Ex-soldiers will lower the bar until they find the audience.
14) Yes, I am leading you to the gang wars - ex-soldiers providing experience and connection, and youngsters becoming their foot soldiers. Isn't it ironic? Probably, until you think of the easiest targets - middle-class, who somehow managed to maintain some level of wealth.
15) And this IS ironic. The people who thought that was not their war, that they simply need to mind their business and support the "boys" will be in the first row -finally seeing who those boys are and what the real business is.
16) And the great irony of 2023 is gonna keep giving. Those thinking "that's just Putin, not Russia" will see Putin losing control, while things keep getting worse. Ryazan airport? Mobilization age increase? Prigozhin sputtering clemencies like a genocidal Santa? Is this control?
17) It's hard for me to imagine that in 2023 Putin is gonna wake up and say: "Alinochka, I think I was a fucking idiot, let's make things differently from now on. Please, poke Valentina, I think this orgy was a bad idea too". He. Will. Keep. Losing. The grip.
18) Can it stay unnoticed by anyone? Come on, dude! It is noticed on EVERY FUCKING LEVEL. Just look at... Drum roll... Russian sociological surveys. Yeah, those that mean basically nothing.
Well, they do. Just stop looking at the answers. Begin looking at the questions.
19) Look at these questions:
What do you think about the last year personally?
What do you think it meant to Russia?
What do you expect from the next year for Russia?
What do you expect from the next year for the world?
Who is the political figure of the year?
20) Those were asked by VCIOM every year since the early 2000s. The same questions, year to year, for us to see the trend. None of these questions were asked this year. NONE. But we know people in Russia love Gazmanov. Well, good to know.
21) Anyone remotely sane can see the collapse and these cynical opportunists inside the power structure are cruel, not dumb. 2023 will be the year of overwhelming paranoia and fights between different groups of interests.
22) Oh! Finally a good thing, they will fight each other and 'good russians' will take control. First stop, who? Secondly, I think, that the unifying paranoia over this scenario will be... Well... Unifying. 2023 in my opinion will be the year of unprecedented oppression.
23) And it will get harder than ever. I don't think any country wants to deal with this gun smuggling unstable bullshit, so borders and limitations will emerge for anyone Russia-related.
If someone lost their "Stay home" covid posters, these might come in handy again.
24) It might sound like I feel sorry for anyone here. No, not really. We caused so much pain and misery, we destroyed so many lives, we ignored every possible junction and slammed to this apocalyptic finale yelling "Yay, Crimea!!!". How should anyone expect a different outcome?
25) At the same point, the weaker Russia gets, the better it is for Ukraine and the rest of the world. If drowning in your own shit is the only way for us to accept the loss - let it be so, there is nothing more important than to end this war. Russia was given enough chances.
26) Next question - is it a bizarrely long call to action for everyone to flee? No. Ignoring, running, fleeing, and lying brought us here. We need to accept that we are fucked and try not to fall any lower - there is always a possibility.
27) There are good people in this ruin. They can do something good. For some regions, it's a chance to finally break free from the failed state empire. For someone, it's a possibility to start from scratch. But it is not gonna be easy, fun, or gratifying.
28) And it shouldn't be. Not a single year including 2023 is gonna be the year of easy answers for us anymore.
Thread over. Now you know, why no one invites me to NY parties. | |
https://twitter.com/betelgeuse1922/status/1606249858926612485
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War der wirklich da? Und an der Front? Fällt mir etwas schwer zu glauben, dass man danach noch auf so cringy YT thumbnails bock hat.
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Wäre schon eine sehr ausgefallene Lüge, da zwei Stunden lang drüber zu reden.
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Der erzählt generell mit sehr viel Humor von seinen Erlebnissen. Ist wohl sein Weg damit umzugehen.
Die Chancen dass das "Fake" ist halte für für sehr, sehr gering.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Poliadversum am 25.12.2022 12:57]
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Lindybeige ist fürchterlich. Der Typ aber ganz interessant.
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https://tkr.ro/e/E6XNvyrGIfK741kL
| | In einer Umfrage des Meinungsforschungsinstituts YouGov im Auftrag der dpa sprechen sich 45 Prozent der Befragten gegen eine Lieferung deutscher Kampfpanzer des Typs Leopard 2 in die Ukraine aus. Nur 33 Prozent sind dafür, 22 Prozent machen keine Angaben.
...
In der Umfrage überwiegt nur bei den Wählern der Grünen die Zustimmung zur Kampfpanzerlieferung - und zwar eindeutig: 50 Prozent sind dafür, nur 25 Prozent dagegen. Bei den anderen beiden Koalitionsparteien sind die Gegner in der Mehrheit - bei der SPD nur knapp mit 41 zu 40 Prozent, bei der FDP mit 42 zu 33 Prozent. Auch die Anhänger von CDU/CSU sind eher gegen eine Panzerlieferung (43 zu 38 Prozent). Am größten ist die Ablehnung bei den Wählern der AfD (76 zu 13 Prozent) und der Linken (52 zu 32 Prozent). | |
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"Russia is a special country where special people live"
Würde Putin hier sogar zustimmen.
/Oh, heute ist "USSR Collapse Day". Oder wie der Kaputte im Video sagen würde: "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von -=Q=- 8-BaLL am 25.12.2022 21:36]
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dabei hat Putin die udssr doch im Grunde sogar wieder hergestellt. Alle müssen mit Gewalt dran gehindert werden abzuhauen, Wirtschaft kaputt, Totalüberwachung von Medien und Bewohnern, Nato rüstet wieder auf, willkommen zurück in den 70ern.
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Also noch 20 Jahre die Scheiße bis es wieder zusammenbricht? :-/
/
Weihnachten
//
Ach, Weihnachten
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 2 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von -=Q=- 8-BaLL am 25.12.2022 22:14]
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So schön das Video ist und auch ein gutes Gefühl hinterlässt macht es mich traurig, dass es einfach genug Fälle gibt, wo es eben nicht so funktioniert  (und da schließe ich die russischen Soldaten ebenso mit ein - auch deren Kinder haben es verdient ihre Väter wieder zu sehen).
Spoiler - markieren, um zu lesen:
PS: ich bin mir durchaus dessen bewusst, das einige dieser Väter vermutlich in Kriegsverbrechen verwickelt sind. Mögen Sie dafür auch zur Rechenschaft gezogen werden!
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2022 in Bildern
| | | It's been 300, precisely 303 days. There weren't many professional photographers around for most of the time, though at certain moments there were too many of them around. So here's the selection. And a summary. | |
Und das letzte Motiv hat sich gerade in Kherson wiederholt
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1606365243013201949.html
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Das letzte Bild löst eine solch ohnmächtige Wut aus :/
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Doku über Mozart, das Gegenstück zu Wagner. Zivilisten unterstützen/retten im Osten.
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| | Zitat von Real_Futti
Ich kann den Link nicht anklicken, ich ahne, was da noch alles kommt.
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| | | None of the children pictured in these photos survived | |
Jo, lass es.
Ohnmächtige Wut trifft es ganz gut.
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| Thema: Allgemeine Diskussion zum Ukraine Krieg |
