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Diesel fuel can't melt steel beams! Alles feek.
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Wow. Das mal eine Demonstration von Macht und Hoden.
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Breaking: By an overwhelming majority, the Kerch Bridge has voted to join the Kingdom of Atlantis.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1578620378234368001
| | My 21 September thread explaining what the loss of the Crimean bridge means for russian logistics and how the war for russia will go now.
-> russia's entire Southern Front is now in trouble.
No Kerch bridge = no resupply of fuel, ammo, vehicles, etc. | |
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1572389840007892992
| | Why are russian propagandists and the Kremlin so afraid of ATACMS missiles... is it a fear of striking deep into russia? is it a fear of striking symbolic targets?
No, it's all about logistics. A thread 🧵:
russian military logistics are a disaster: no forklifts, no pallets, too few trucks, bad maintenance, corruption, incompetence, no movement control units - without access to a railroad russia can't supply its troops.
For more about this topic - see:
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017
The only way for russia to somehow keep its logistics alive are railroads. For russia no access to a railroad equals failure of an operation:
attack towards Kyiv from the East - no railroad = no supplies, troops starving, tanks without fuel, no ammo - disaster, then retreat.
The moment Ukrainian troops arrived outside Kupiansk, russian troops fled from Izyum, as without the railyard at Kupiansk there was no chance to supply the Izyum salient.
With the flight from Kharkiv russia is now down to two fronts:
• East: Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts
• South: Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea oblasts
Let's look at the main railroads in the East first (colored blue):
Kupiansk, the main rail hub for the Luhansk sector, has liberated by Ukraine. Debaltseve and Ilovaisk, the main rail hubs for the Donetsk sector, are in GMLRS range (yellow circles).
This forces russia to unload trains 100+ km from the front and truck supplies the rest of the way, but russia doesn't have enough transport units for this. This shortfall in transport capacity has already led to russia being unable to pursue offensive operations in the Donetsk sector.
The logistic situation is even worse for the Luhansk sector, where distance are longer and roads worse. I believe these problems will force russia to retreat further in Northern Luhansk.
ATACMS wouldn't change much in this front sector. No russian air bases are within Ukrainian territory and most russian depots have been HIMARSed already.
But things are very different on the Southern front.
The Southern front: colored in blue the main supply lines and in yellow GMLRS ranges, which force russia to unload trains far from the front.
Now we're gonna have a closer look at the three locations in the purple pentagons:
• Volnovakha
• Kerch
• Syvash
The railroad from Donetsk to Volnovakha (colored in orange) is unusable. It's in 120 mm mortar range (yellow circles) and in L119 105 mm howitzer range (green circle). Where the railroad is closest to the front it is even Javelin range - no train can pass here. Not one.
This means the ONLY way for russia to supply its 70,000 troops on the Southern front is by rail over the Kerch bridge. russia neither has the trucks nor the drivers to supply its Southern front by road. There is only one lifeline and it runs over two bridges and if ATACMS takes these two bridges out - russia can't hold the South.
Especially with winter fast approaching - because soon russia will not have to transport food for 70,000+ troops, millions of liters of fuel, 100s of tons of ammo, spares and supplies to the South every day, it will also have to supply 100s of tons of heating material every day. russian forces in Kherson on the right bank of the Dnipro are already running low on ammo, fuel, food, spares, replacement tanks, etc. because the bridges over the Dnipro have been taken out by GMLRs. But those are just 20,000 troops and trucks have to drive only 100 km to pick up supplies - imagine what happens when it is 70,000 troops, 400+ km of distance from rostov-on-don and it is winter.
This is why russia's dictator and his goons are so scared of ATACMS.
The Kerch railbridge (in red) is a 227 m tied-arch bridge... two ATACMS and she is gone, as attacking ATACMS weigh almost a ton and hit with Mach 4; and then they detonate 215 lb og high explosive.
The bridge will not survive. Even if she would not collapse into the sea, no train can cross her after that without risking to drop into the sea with the remnants of the bridge.
And ATACMS will not miss - officially their CEP is 9 meter... but it's actually under 2.
And don't worry: the Kerch bridge isn't in russia.
Tuzla island in the middle of the Kerch Strait is, like Crimea, part of Ukraine. The internationally recognized border between Ukraine and russia is nowhere near the bridge.
Ukraine is just hitting targets inside Ukraine.
Hitting the Kerch railbridge would devastate putin's ability to wage war in the South of Ukraine. Hitting the Kerch railbridge would also be highly symbolic, showing all russians putin is a loser. Yes, he could retaliate... but nothing he can do would improve the disastrous military situation he is in.
...
Ultimately it is a strike on the railway bridge in Kerch that putin and his gang of genocidal war criminals fear most - that is why they are so shrill about it. They know how this would devastate their war and occupation of Southern Ukraine, AND they know they can could not retaliate. The only retaliation open to them would be to use a tactical nuclear weapon... which would see all of them either die in nuclear war or be hung from their neck as war criminals. The shriller the shriek, the more they show how afraid they are of the US and Ukraine calling their bluff and blowing up the Kerch bridge.
Once ATACMS are on the battlefield, russia has to abandon its four airfields and all its Black Sea fleet bases in Crimea.
And russia can't land a single ship in Crimea or along the Ukrainian Azov Sea coast to resupply its forces, because those ships would be ATACMSed immediately.
I said in May that M142 HIMARS and GMLRS would change the course of the war - and they did.
twitter.com/noclador/status/1531067601006301184
And russia never retaliated. Now ATACMS can change the course of the war - even more than GMLRs.
russia fears ATACMS - but here is no reason for us to fear russia. Ukraine deserves ATACMS, Ukraine needs ATACMS - to deny Ukraine ATACMS is to aid russia.
Send ATACMS now!
PS: russian air defense - not gonna do anything when ATACMS comes. They are technically 30 years behind.
| |
(Eröffnung der Brücke 2018?)
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578614137063878656
https://twitter.com/MelaniePodolyak/status/1578489485469548544
| | - If you win, will Vladimir Putin survive?
- I do not care.
| |
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1578633255045062656
| | Russian anti-terror committee says a truck exploded on the bridge, both destroying a section of the motorway and also igniting railway cars filled with fuel. Honestly raises a ton of questions, including how that attack could be timed so perfectly and could a single bomb do it?
...
There is now security footage that purports to show a truck exploding on the Crimean Bridge. If this is all true, it means this was a suicide attack.
Another video showing the moment when a truck bomb apparently tore through the Crimea Bridge.
Fair amount of speculation (from me too in last tweet) so to be clear we still don’t know what caused the explosion on the bridge.
| |
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1578634672753762306
https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1578433838732087297
| | This year Xi Jinping did not congratulate his friend Vladimir Putin on his 70th birthday.
But two days ago Xi sent an official letter to Tajikistan's president Emomali Rahmon on his 70th birthday.
| |
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1578639387843526656
| | Clearer video of the damage to the bridge. The train fires have died down but continue to smoulder. The extensive damage to the road bridges can be clearly seen.
| |
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1578631494247284736
| | People began to form queues for the petrol station in Crimea.
 | |
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1578635794151276544
| | Here why this matters and shows what Ukraine is probably going to do next. There are only two rail networks to reach the southern front. The one through Crimea might now be closed (put an X on that). The only other one is the trunk line north of Melitopol (marked with black line)
That Melitopol line is very close to Ukrainian lines. Here is an adapted @War_Mapper map with the rail line highlighted with a dark line. The Ukrainians cut that line at any one point, and its game over for the Russian army in the south (if the Kerch bridge is out)
| | | Absolutely devastating act of humiliation to the Kremlin. One of the last nails in Putin’s coffin. | |
Even Putin's sycophants must understand how devastating his war is for Russia.
| |
https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1578616091257221120
| | Some thoughts on the Crimean bridge attack (all caveats apply as it's too early for definitive conclusions). First, the obvious: the bridge is a key component of Russia's war infrastructure. Throughout the war, it has been used to transfer manpower, weapons and fuel into Ukraine.
"A key" doesn't mean that Russia can't do without, but it's a significant loss. Second, the bridge is an escape route out of Crimea for its estimated 2 million residents. We can anticipate renewed desire to leave Crimea, potentially bordering on panic, now that this is shut off.
There are other routes, tbs, including by boat, and via the "land bridge," which is still under Russian control. I am not sure what the current status is there (in early summer it was only open to military vehicles). In any case, we'll likely see people trying to use this route.
But the real significance here is symbolic: Ukraine demonstrating capability, and Putin being seen rapidly running out of options. Given the developments of recent weeks - a shambolic mobilisation, defeats in Ukraine, criticism of Shoigu - Putin will be put on the spot big time.
Worth keeping in mind here that the bridge was seen as one of the big "achievements" of Putin's presidency (built at an astronomical cost by a company belonging to one of Putin's cronies). It symbolises Putinism itself.
Putin has of course cornered himself - by extending his red lines via sham referenda, repeatedly brandishing nuclear weapons, etc - so this will put his credibility to the test. Under these circumstances, it's important for the US to maintain clear channels of communication.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 15 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 08.10.2022 9:33]
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Belated Happy Birthday.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von h3llfir3 am 08.10.2022 8:30]
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Ist das der LKW der da in die Luft fliegt? Die Explosion ist ja schon nicht ohne.
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Krass, das kommt nun total überraschend. - Frage mich, was das war. 
Bisher hieß es, die MGM-140 ATACMS, mit über 300 km Reichweite, wären zu schwach, um der Krim Brücke ernsthafter Schäden beizubringen und nur Luftschläge wären sinnvoll.
(Ah, diverse pro russische Telegramkanäle überschlagen sich mit unterschiedlichen Versionen. Mal gab es einen Selbstmord LKW-Fahrer bis hin zu, der Zugführer hätte geraucht und so die Treibstoff/Öl Wagons angezündet)
(Ok, das Erste hier ist möglicherweise ein alter Fake)
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1578610768639102976/pu/vid/848x464/RroOtcjEI3d9aAzV.mp4?tag=12
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 5 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Troodon am 08.10.2022 9:53]
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Das Video ist doch Fake?!
Wieso ist bei dem einen Video Licht auf der Brücke und es ist dunkel und hier ist es hell.
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| | A senior Ukrainian military official did not deny that Ukrainian forces were behind the attack but would not confirm it.
“All I can say is that an echelon with fuel intended to supply occupation forces in the south of Ukraine was passing over the bridge from Krasnodar Krai,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he did not have permission to speak to the news media.
The official added: “Putin should be happy. Not everyone gets such an expensive present on their birthday.” | |
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1578634825417650176
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von -=Q=- 8-BaLL am 08.10.2022 9:28]
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| | Zitat von Troodon
Krass, das kommt nun total überraschend. - Frage mich, was das war.
Bisher hieß es, die MGM-140 ATACMS, mit über 300 km Reichweite, wären zu schwach, um der Krim Brücke ernsthafter Schäden beizubringen und nur Luftschläge wären sinnvoll.
(Ah, diverse pro russische Telegramkanäle überschlagen sich mit unterschiedlichen Versionen. Mal gab es einen Selbstmord LKW-Fahrer bis hin zu, der Zugführer hätte geraucht und so die Treibstoff/Öl Wagons angezündet)
| |
Das erste Video ist ein fake aus März oder so.
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von ghostbear am 08.10.2022 9:42]
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FICK JA!
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Tausendmal berührt
Tausendmal ist nix passiert
Tausend und eine Nacht
Und es hat Boooooooooooooooom gemacht
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Wenn da zufällig oder gezielt ein Treibstoff LKW getroffen wurde, wäre das auch eine Erklärung für den Megabumms
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Ok Leute ihr musst euch entscheiden: Truck bomb oder boat bomb people? Wo steht ihr?
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Hatte der Lastwagen denn Traktoren aus Belarus geladen? und trug der Fahrer einen Helm?
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| | Zitat von M`Buse
Ok Leute ihr musst euch entscheiden: Truck bomb oder boat bomb people? Wo steht ihr?
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Wenn, dann erfährt man es wohl erst nach dem Krieg.
Ich glaube nicht, dass die Ukraine nun ihr Geheimnis lüften wird. Wo vielleicht noch weitere Angriffe auf die Brücke geplant sind, um ihr den Rest zu geben oder erst nach ihrer Reparatur.
Damit würde man sich schließlich nur strategisch schaden und ggf. Mitwirkende auf der Krim, gefährden.
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| | Zitat von M`Buse
Ok Leute ihr musst euch entscheiden: Truck bomb oder boat bomb people? Wo steht ihr?
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Rauchender cienFuchs.
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Sieht nicht so aus als würde man da ab übermorgen wieder Borschttankwagen an die Front fahren können
Das muss doch die südliche Front komplett kollabieren lassen innerhalb weniger Tage oder Wochen.
Es ist sehr gut
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https://twitter.com/TomWlost/status/1578452608150212609 | Thread Reader
| | So new EU #Russia #sanctions package just dropped yesterday. You're curious what's in it, but don't have the time go through it!
Lucky for you: I've got you covered. I just spend the entire night dissecting every line. Here is what's in it.
EU changed 3 areas of law:
1/ Asset freezes/visa bans, adding new 30 individuals and 7 entities (incl. Alexander Dugin);
2/ Major Russia sanctions law, by adding new restrictions, incl. oil price cap; and
3/ Embargo on Donetsk/Luhansk.
I will analyze these in turn.
As for individuals designations (asset freezes/entry bans), the EU listed additional 30 individuals and 7 entities. The total number is now at 1262 individuals and 118 entities.
Among new individuals we have: ...
Second, related to assess freezes: the EU also created a new grounds for listing (e.g. subjecting to sanctions) of foreign companies and individuals that facilitate EU persons violation of EU sanctions. There are no specific foreign companies sanctioned yet, but this signals that EU now can - if it decides to - sanction non-EU companies if they are engaged in helping EU entities engage in forbidden transactions.
This is quite a U-turn for EU, which has until recently been complaining abt US applying its sanctions to non-US companies extraterritorially. It now appears EU is discovering it too needs to have a weapon against 3rd country entities entangled in EU sanctions circumvention.
...
So now we move to amendments to the big sanctions regulation ...
The first big one is the infamous oil price cap. Once a price is established, EU introduces a complete ban on transport, including ship-to-ship transfers, to third countries, of Russian crude oil (from 4/12/22) and petroleum products (from 5/2/23), unless the cap is met.
...
The second big new sanction is - in my view - MONUMENTAL. This is the extension of the steel import embargo, to products "processed in third countries", but incorporating Russian iron and steel products.
I cannot stress this enough. This is BIG. Essentially, under Russian sanctions, the EU is banning imports of certain steel and iron products from ANY COUNTRY, if they are made from Russian steel and iron.
These are secondary sanctions, in a way. Extraterritorial.
For example, a Turkish or Chinese steel product will not be able to enter into the EU, if its made from Russian input. Mentally, the EU just completely reversed years of its sanctions policy.
If extended to other products (oil, gas), this could have MASSIVE implications.
It could close the EU market to any foreign products (Chinese, Indian, Turkish, etc) if made from Russian components. Essentially, the EU is exporting its import ban on Russia to other countries.
If you are a Chinese producer targetting the EU market, will you risk buying from the Russians? I don't think you will.
...
Fourth import sanction: the list of products that "generate significant revenues for Russia" and their import is prohibited got significantly extended by 120 customs headings, including chemicals, paper products, textiles, semi-precious stones, machinery, etc.
| |
Er hier tippt wohl auf Raketen (ATACMS):
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1578640041488060416
| | 1) 3 (!) separate sections of the road bridge collapsed. That means two strikes
2) blast damage on the guardrails is consistent with a detonation above the road pavement
3) 2 ATACMS (fired from a M270) | |
| | Truck bomb people: explain how Ukraine supposedly managed to transport tons of explosives to russia and then drive that through Kuban and onto the Kerch bridge?
...
Truck bomb conspiracists: Ukraine transported to or bought tons of explosives in russia, then put them on a truck, and hauled it past this security checkpoint without russia noticing anything.
Sure...
| | https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578658153239306240
By the way, it is not so easy to enter the Crimean bridge
At the entrances there are stationary ST-6035 inspection radio-technical complexes of the Directorate of Departmental Security of the Russian Ministry of Transport. They are also check cars for explosives. | |
| |
| | Oh, come on!
Now we have boat bomb people... so you say Ukraine transported a boat and tons of explosives to the Azov Sea which is on all its sides controlled by russia???
Can't people please take a map and look up basic geography before they tweet?????????
...
Boat bomb conspiracists: Let's number the spans 1, 2, and 3. So the "boat" passed under span 3... but then span 1 and 2 collapsed and 3, where the "boat" "exploded", is still standing??
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 2 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Herr der Lage am 08.10.2022 10:47]
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| | Zitat von AJ Alpha
Sieht nicht so aus als würde man da ab übermorgen wieder Borschttankwagen an die Front fahren können
Das muss doch die südliche Front komplett kollabieren lassen innerhalb weniger Tage oder Wochen.
Es ist sehr gut
| |
Ich warte noch auf mehr Berichte, ob das wirklich zutrifft oder ob "nur" die Kapazität extrem eingeschränkt ist.
Eine Fahrtrichtung scheint ja noch zu stehen (ka zu Belastungsfähigkeit) und wie es der Bahnverbindung geht ist auch unklar.
So oder so ein spektakulärer Angriff zu einem tollen Datum. 
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| | Zitat von Aspe
Ich warte noch auf mehr Berichte, ob das wirklich zutrifft oder ob "nur" die Kapazität extrem eingeschränkt ist.
Eine Fahrtrichtung scheint ja noch zu stehen (ka zu Belastungsfähigkeit) und wie es der Bahnverbindung geht ist auch unklar.
So oder so ein spektakulärer Angriff zu einem tollen Datum.
| |
Die Bahnverbindung dauerhaft zu beschädigen, wäre in dieser Situation am wichtigsten. Sei es für mehrere Tage oder noch besser für 1 bis mehreren Wochen.
Denn der Großteil der Güter wird mit der Bahn an die Front geliefert.
Russland hat garnicht so viel LKWs, um alles nötige dahin zu transportieren. - Zudem brauchen die auch noch selber Treibstoff. Man müsste also auch noch eine große Logistikkette mit Treibstoff LKWs bereitstellen, die die Krim versorgen...
Bei Russlands Logiktalenten bricht in so einem Fall nur Chaos aus.
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Naja, sowohl die Bahnverbindung als auch die zweite straßentrasse sind verbogen. Bei der Flexibilität von Beton dürfte das ein ziemlich schlechtes Zeichen sein.
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Muss sich die Tage zeigen, ob die Bahnverbindung wirklich verbogen wurde durch die Hitze.
Die Struktur die durchhängt, könnte nur das sein, was seitlich dort befestigt wurde. Nicht die Betonspur selbst, auf der die Gleise liegen. (Die Gleise müssen aber garantiert getauscht werden auf dem Stück)
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| Thema: Allgemeine Diskussion zum Ukraine Krieg |
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