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Nächstes Parteiausschlußverfahren für Gerdchen?
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Lord Nighthawk am 14.03.2023 10:22]
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| | Zitat von Herr der Lage
https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1635385940234612736
kaneactual on instagram
| | This is the surprise conclusion to my last few posts. Unexpected to say the least.
We hit a Russian position a few days ago and after a quick battle and breach we started clearing the bunker and basement.
"Ya Ukrayinets!" (I'm Ukrainian) a voice said from the stairwell, I stopped the lads from tossing a grenade in and pushed some Ukrainian's forward to interact with the voice. Skeptical, we felt a trap brewing, we pushed forward and I started to go through the search process. I got on him and searched his body and tossed him to his front. Then his eyes met mine "New Zealand! New Zealand!" I looked down. I recognised him, it was my friend who I thought was killed by the Russians when they invaded his house. Heavily starved for two months and forced to drink anti freeze for entertainment, he barely looked like the man I knew a couple of months ago.
But it was the best thing to happen to me in this God foresaken war. To be able to save your friends is something that almost never happens but I'm thankful and feel blessed that it was us that could pull him from that Hell hole.
🙏🇺🇦♥️
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Uff.
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| | Zitat von h3llfir3
wie klärt man sowas überhaupt noch auf?!
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Vor Ort im Feld 
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Drauf schießen, entweder macht es "puff" oder "bumm"
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| | Zitat von MUR.doc
Drauf schießen, entweder macht es "puff" oder "bumm"
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Und dann Videos von Drohnen die Holz-Himars zerstören auf Telegram hochladen
This is the Russian Way
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Darum gehts ja bei den Attrappen.....das schweineteure Raketen auf übergroße Luftballoons verblasen werden (und ggf hier und da präsenz vorzutäuschen).
Zu den Amis....ja, schwierig, obwohl die Reps ja letztens so ne geile Umfrage veröffentlich hatten das ja die meisten gegen weitere Unterstützungen der Ukraine wären.....es gab die Punkte
keine weitere Unterstüzung: 40%
aktuell genau richtige Unterstützungsmenge: 23%
könnte ruhig noch mehr Unterstützt werden: 18%
enthaltung: 19%
Na, wer kann Mathe, ist kein Ami und liest da immer noch raus das "keine Unterstützung" die Mehrheit hat?
Naja, Reps halt, bleibt Bidens Leuten nur entsprechende Gegenmaßnahmen zu treffen - wie auch immer die aussehen mögen.
Bezüglich Bachmut: schwierig. War halt lange möglich da viele Russen "für lau" loszuwerden, wenn allerdings die eigene Truppenstärke bezüglich Frühjahrsoffensive doch drunter leidet ist es schwierig die Argumentation für Bachmut aufrecht zu erhalten.
Vielleicht sollte man den Laden jetzt langsam aufgeben, aus der Luft verbliebene Ruinen völlig platt machen und bei Google Maps anrufen Bachmut von der Weltkarte zu streichen - was nicht existiert kann nicht erobert werden und ist dann auch kein Erfolg für Putinowski. So einfach ist das 
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von Lord Nighthawk am 14.03.2023 14:09]
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Von CredibleDefense mal rüber gezogen:
Carnegie Connects with Michael Kofman and Aaron David Miller.
Notes:
State of war according to Kofman: War in transitional period, positional fighting. Late Jan Russian military began winter offensive composed of 5-6 different operations. Underwhelming results. Highly regional fighting, Vuhledar very different from Kreminna etc. Bakhmut least advantageous battle for Ukraine, flanks folding, city holding. Tension in the air, Ukraine building up force for offensive operations, unknown target. Current state of affairs will not continue.
Is war being reported in Western media accurately? Is there a gap in reporting? There is a gap, there's always a gap in war but it varies. Not borne of malice/incompetence, just a fact of war. Highly regional aspect of fighting makes generalizing narratives fraught proposition. People that have the most access to the press are senior officials who shape narratives instrumentally as part of their job. Social media provides caricature of war. Very narrow window.
Is there one thing we're not understanding or is being under reported wrt to Ukrainian military? Transformation of Ukrainian military. Neither army looks remotely like they did when the war began, both have suffered severe losses. Large swathes of pre-war expertise is now outdated in terms of analysis of both militaries.
What have the Russians learned that has improved their performance? Russian military less ossified than it may appear. Some outlying examples such as Vuhledar but across the battle there are adaptations in force structure, tactics. Ukrainian losses around Bakhmut largely due to Wagner assault detachments conducting both day and nighttime assaults (different units for different times) composed of experienced fighters with fire support that capitalize on exhaustion caused by attacks by expendable troops such as prisoners. (Kofman is circumspect here) A lot of Ukrainian military does Mission Command at least in some respects by default, in contrast Russia not nearly as flexible. On the other hand Ukrainian suffers from Soviet officers lacking in experience. Best people lost first.
Unpack Bakhmut. What is the importance of the city? Perhaps the most significant battle from a political standpoint. Ukrainian leadership has chosen to make Bakhmut politically symbolic, to make it a contest of will with the Russian armed forces. Advantageous battle up to a point but now diminishing returns. After loss of Soledar position has become more precarious. Suspects Ukraine will attempt to hold Bakhmut until able to launch their own counteroffensive. City not rubblized, Ukraian forces control high rises in western part of the city. MSR increasingly contested by Russian forces.
If UAF retreats from Bakhmut, does it matter? Not really, Ukraine has favorable positions west of the city. Russia has no supporting axis of advance. Russia would probably turn it's attack north. No strategic calamity in the event of withdrawal.
Can you imagine the war shifting in a way that would change the momentum of the way the war is playing out? (I read this as moving beyond positional battle back into maneuver, perhaps it just means a change in initiative though) Yes, most definitely. Major offensive by Ukrainian military in coming months. Will likely see series of attacks like Kherson. Unknown location, probably several months of operations not single operation over short time period. Will see change in momentum regardless. Ukrainian ability to achieve breakthrough remains in question, no way of knowing. Challenge made more difficult by high density of Russian forces and entrenched lines. On the other hand, current offensive spending Russian manpower and ammunition.
Is Ukraine in a hurry to do something big? Yes, longer Ukraine waits greater the risk of assumption of stalemate in West and sapping of political will. Also more time spent waiting, more time for Russia to entrench. Greatest window of opportunity to liberate more territory when Western equipment comes in sufficient quantity along with buildup of additional forces combined with relative Russian weakness. Longer UAF waits, lower the relative advantage.
Does Ukraine now have the equipment they need to mount a significant counteroffensive? They have some of the "stuff" they need, putting together three army corps. Assembling equipment and personnel for this, hoping west will provide sufficient artillery ammunition. Ukraine an artillery army. Currently rationing shells, real shortage on the front. Real challenge Ukraine has is not "stuff' but force quality. They have morale and will get material. Many mobilized without prior service, equipment alone does not enable combined arms operations.
Tanks and F16s. Are these discretionary or vital equipment? Are they irrelevant to the battlefield dynamic and if so, when would they become relevant? Tanks matter, Ukraine has lost a lot of tanks, has received a lot of tanks. In the past have been lower priority than other items Ukraine needed (artillery). Tier list: 1) Artillery ammunition and barrels 2) GBAD ammo 3) AFVs, specifically protected mobility 4) Tanks to replace losses. On way out of Bakhmut, Kofman passed reinforcing tank platoon composed entirely of Russian T-80s captured from 1st Guards in Izyum. Ukraine needs spare parts for T-series tanks. War does not depend on # of western tanks delivered. F16s least important item to be delivered. Kofman believes decisive phase of war coming this spring-summer. Priority should be to backfill Ukrainian forces for losses they're likely to experience in upcoming offensive.
Elaborate on comment on decisive phase of war? Can you see a situation where a Ukrainian counteroffensive causes a significant break in Russian forces or control of the Donbas? Sure. "In these conversations we have to have bit of kind of decisive sophistry" If Ukraine can sever Russian GLOC to Crimea, could have significant effects on Russian ability to sustain war. War wouldn't be over in such a situation, war termination up to loser. In coming months likely to see best prospects for an offensive operation that could affect the trajectory of the conflict. That is meaning of "decisive".
Sidebar about the notion of military victory ending conflict being something that people should reconsider.
Does this all ultimately come down to mass? (quote about quantity as quality is misattributed twice) Large scale conventional wars come down to attrition. Reconstituting force and managing manpower and material. Side better able to reconstitute can impose dilemmas on opponent. Safe bet that Russia will conduct another phase of mobilization rather than not. Ukraine's best prospects are this year. War is numbers game, Western tanks are "cool" but meaningless if not delivered in volume.
Russian resilience. To what degree will Russia remain a problem after the war regardless of how military phase of war turns out? Russia goes through cycles of resurgence, stagnation, decline. Kofman and others such as Andrea Kendall-Taylor very wary that because Russia suffering strategic defeat it will naturally undergo some period of decline and that people will write them off falsely. Russia is not NK or Iran, will remain geopolitically relevant. Russia is not "done" after this, cannot be forgotten.
Escalation (don't want to talk about it because it's predictive). Likelihood of nuclear escalation? Carnegie analysts, many of whom are Russian born, are very wary of consequences should Russia's hold over Crimea be threatened. Where does Kofman stand? Acute risk of nuclear escalation has receded but has not gone away. Conditions based. If there is any point at which Russian leadership would consider use of nuclear weapons it would be an event wherein Russian military leadership loses effective C&C of the Russian military in Ukraine. Cascade collapse. Not operational defeat but real catastrophic event. Ultimately up to Putin. Don't count on fairytales, Russian weapons will work, Russian forces will cary out orders. Worry that if one used tens will be.
What is the US strategy in Ukraine? Is it to allow the Ukrainians to inflict sufficient losses on Russia that Putin concludes the war cannot continue and negotiates? Not cost-driven. Attempt to convey to Russian leaders that their political objectives cannot be achieved. Second goal to convince Russian leadership that increasing length of war increases risk to regime. Challenge that strategic defeat for Russia is not victory for Ukraine. Some people in DC believe the former already achieved. (Good dodge by Kofman not to critique Victoria Nuland)
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| | Zitat von Lord Nighthawk
Zu den Amis....ja, schwierig, obwohl die Reps ja letztens so ne geile Umfrage veröffentlich hatten das ja die meisten gegen weitere Unterstützungen der Ukraine wären.....es gab die Punkte
keine weitere Unterstüzung: 40%
aktuell genau richtige Unterstützungsmenge: 23%
könnte ruhig noch mehr Unterstützt werden: 18%
enthaltung: 19%
Na, wer kann Mathe, ist kein Ami und liest da immer noch raus das "keine Unterstützung" die Mehrheit hat?
Naja, Reps halt, bleibt Bidens Leuten nur entsprechende Gegenmaßnahmen zu treffen - wie auch immer die aussehen mögen.
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Bei den Reps muss ich immer an das hier denken:
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Boah ist das ekelhaft. Auf so vielen Ebenen.
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15:56 Uhr
Putin: Russland kämpft um seine Existenz
Russland kämpft Präsident Wladimir Putin zufolge um seine Existenz. Es sei ein Kampf für die Russen, die im Osten der Ukraine lebten, sagt er bei einem Besuch eines Flugzeugwerks in der Region Burjatia. Die Gesellschaft müsse gestärkt werden.
(tagesschau.de) | |
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Prinzipiell stimmt das sogar. Russland kämpft aber nur um seine Existenz, weil der Angriff auf die Ukraine diese drohende Instabilität (in Russlands Machtgefüge) überhaupt erst ausgelöst hat
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Wie war das mit einem Atomwaffeneinsatz Russland "nur bei Bedrohung für Existenz des Staates"?
Gute Wortwahl von Putin. 
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| | Zitat von Aspe
Wie war das mit einem Atomwaffeneinsatz Russland "nur bei Bedrohung für Existenz des Staates"?
Gute Wortwahl von Putin.
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Da "Staat" oder auch "Hoheitsgebiet" bei den Russen wohl ein....dehnbarer () Begriff ist....tjoah
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Bei der BBC fragt man sich, was die Drohne falsch gemacht hat
| | | Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea | |
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Man muss auch die andere Seite beachten, vielleicht war die Drohne ja aufreizend lackiert.
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Vielleicht ist das son Reflex wie bei Verkehrsunfällen, wo Fahrradfahrer immer gegen Autos prallen.
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| | Zitat von Bullitt
Man muss auch die andere Seite beachten, vielleicht war die Drohne ja aufreizend lackiert.
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regenbogenlackierung?
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| | | Der nordkoreanische Machthaber Kim Jong-un/russische Verteidigungsminister Schoigu hat angeordnet, die Produktion von Raketen zu verdoppeln. Die Aufgabe sei hart, aber erfüllbar, sagte Kim/Schoigu laut staatlichen Medien bei einem Besuch in einer Raketenfabrik in der Nähe von Pjöngjang/Moskau. Weder Südkorea/die Ukraine noch andere Länder verfügten heute über solche Hochpräzisionswaffen, betonte er. | |
Nur eine Version ist richtig, aber original so.
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Alles tutti, die Russen waren das mit der Drohne nicht. USA ist Schuld. 
| | Fighter jets did not have contact with drone - Russia
We're now hearing for the first time from the Russian defence ministry on the incident.
Moscow is insisting its aircraft did not use on-board weapons or come into contact with the drone.
They say Russia airspace control systems detected a US MQ-9 unmanned drone flying over the Black Sea, near the Crimean Peninsula, in the direction of the border of the Russian Federation.
They accused the US of violating the boundaries of its temporary airspace "established for the special military operation".
Russia says it scrambled its aircraft to identify the intruder, but due to quick manoeuvring, the MQ-9 drone - which it says was flying with its transponders turned off - went into an "unguided flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface".
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64958547 | |
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Wahrscheinlicher ist, dass der Tank vom Flieger in der Luft durchgerostet ist.
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Möglich wäre es. 
Wenn ich das richtig gelesen habe, soll vom Pentagon demnächst ein Video von dem Vorfall kommen.
------
IRPIN and BUCHA – One Year After. RUSSIAN CRIMES: War in Ukraine
| | | A year ago the world was devasted after seeing the crimes of russians in Irpin, Bucha, Borodianka, and Hostomel. We came here a year after, to see how life returns to the places of mass Ukrainian genocide. | |
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[Dieser Beitrag wurde 1 mal editiert; zum letzten Mal von DeChOsEn am 14.03.2023 21:21]
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| | Zitat von DeChOsEn
Alles tutti, die Russen waren das mit der Drohne nicht. USA ist Schuld.
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Moscow is insisting its aircraft did not use on-board weapons or come into contact with the drone.
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Immerhin, der Teil stimmt vermutlich sogar. Von abgeschossen war nirgendwo die Rede.
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| | Zitat von DeChOsEn
Möglich wäre es. :D
Wenn ich das richtig gelesen habe, soll vom Pentagon demnächst ein Video von dem Vorfall kommen.
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Falls das stimmen sollte bin ich sehr interessiert.
Haben die MIGs versucht die Reapr anzuzünden?
Benzin drauf und afterburner?
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irgendwie klingt das nach Chilisauce.
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1635695854592962591
| | The Russian collision with an American UAV over the Black Sea wouldn’t have been an accident, or a spur of the moment act by a rogue pilot.
It’d almost certainly have been a pre-planned act, designed to raise fears of escalation in the West, whilst not provoking a US response.
Moscow wants people to think that the US providing military aid to Ukraine is too risky. That's been a key goal in their information operation strategy from day one.
The smartest thing the US can do is play this incident down, send more weapons, and not play the Russian game.
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| | | US military official who watched video of the drone incident tells me contact "was not a controlled tap." Russian pilot was “barreling toward the drone” “out of control,” "tried to pull away," hit propellor. “Not something you'd see a professional pilot do. It was amateur hour.” | |
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1635766881628876800
Jetzt bin ich langsam neugierig
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| Thema: Allgemeine Diskussion zum Ukraine Krieg |
